Tropical Storm Sandy, October 2012 (days, storms, meteorology, cyclone)

[Cambium]

99L in the Carribean should beome TS Sandy soon and its the one that gets caught inside the trough and gets pulled into the NorthEast coast per some models.







1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...ISPRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THECENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELLSOUTH OF JAMAICA. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TOSPREAD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

[Cambium]

Sterring Currents. One thing is for sure... It will not go into the Gulf.

Since models have a system near the East coast they are saying its going to take the middle path..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...lm1&zoom=&time=

[Cambium]

Euro12z 10/21/12




GFS12z 10/21/12

[Cambium]

Dont believe the models yet until they get more samples from this system... But the consistancy of them all is a bit interesting.

[ctwhitechin]

I still don't believe we will get a direct hit in the tri state area, maybe some rain etc etc but way too early to tell

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by ctwhitechin

I still don't believe we will get a direct hit in the tri state area, maybe some rain etc etc but way too early to tell

The odds of another hurricane hitting the NorthEast has to be slim. Maybe someone has actual numbers for us.

[Cambium]

HPC Shows the Cyclone in the Atlantic as well now given the fact that all models do. This is the last frame in its loop. Timing of all features will be everything.

HPC Sea-level Pressures and Fronts through Day 7

[Infamous92]

This is looking a little scary, still too far out but this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

[Cambium]

Couple of Tweets from Alan.

Meteorologist Allan Huffman has 10+ years of experience in weather forecasting and modeling with a Master’s Degree in meteorology from NC State University.
Raleigh, NC · http://www.examiner.com/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner

12z Euro showing it as well as last 3 runs of GFS. Whole east coast needs to watch, especially from Outer Banks north

A look at 12z Euro ensemble members show operational near the middle of envelope. Meaning phasing scenario is very much on table

What would a phase mean? It would mean that even though this storm would likely be transitioning from a tropical system to an extra-tropical

one. The strong trough will absorb the tropical energy and create a very intense cold-core or hybrid cyclone that will bring high winds,

heavy rain, coastal flooding etc. In short a huge impact event just before or on Halloween. Greatest threat Outer Banks to New Englad. But? The latest model ideas of driving the storm NW well inland would mean a widespread damaging event for much of the populated NE corridor

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx

[Cambium]

Levi doesnt show the last Euro12z which phases a full storm but the video is worth it.

If your on facebook like his page. //www.facebook.com/tropicaltidbits?ref=stream


Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, October 21st, 2012 - YouTube#!