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Who checks the the Hurricane Forecasters for a conflit of interest regarding the projected "path" and intensity of the hurricane?
If they bring the "path" closer to the oil rigs...It has a big impact on oil and gas futures. They know where the rigs are. I don't believe they don't either sell the forecast before it goes out or buy some exxon mobil before their "path" hits the street. Everybody's Dirty these days.
The projected path and intensity of a tropical cyclone is usually the mean of an array of different computer models (which have no clue where oil rigs or large cities are).
But the Forecaster's do...Thats my point. If they take the mean computer track...then "adjust" it towards the rigs...they directly impact the price of oil.
Rarely does the track of a storm make anywhere near the impact as the intensity when it comes to oil rigs. If there is a tropical storm or Cat 1, those that are directly in the path will follow evacuation processes. Once the storm reaches a 2 or 3, a wider path of rigs will evacuate. When it hits 4 and 5, frequently even those not even in any of the projected paths will evacuate, and thats because even if it doesn't hit their rig, the swells generated by a 4 or 5 from a great distance are monstrous and dangerous to a crew.
But as pointed out earlier, there is such wide coverage in the gulf of oil platforms that it really doesn't matter what track it takes.
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