What happened to the 2006 hurricane predictions? (cyclone, statistically, annual, statistics)

[SoFlaGuy]

Originally Posted by firemed

Now we come into fire season and its very dry. all we can do is hope for the best.

Very dry? Its been raining all week (at least since Tuesday here). The bad thing about El Nino is it brings more T-Storms and possibility of tornadoes. I like this tradeoff though.

[Prichard]

Long term weather prediction is voo-doo science. Too many variables, some of which are controled by things beyond our own world, i.e. solar flares to make long term weather prediction real science at this time. When they learn to turn substantial quantities of lead into gold, I will begin to believe in long term weather prediction.

[Need_affordable_home]

We lucked out. If next year is bad, hurricane insurances will go up another 50% at least. Alot of people will move out of Florida and few will move in. I predict a 1/3 drop in Florida house prices

[sunrico90]

Originally Posted by Need_affordable_home

We lucked out. If next year is bad, hurricane insurances will go up another 50% at least. Alot of people will move out of Florida and few will move in. I predict a 1/3 drop in Florida house prices

I have to agree, the housing market is going to take a greater negative hit if the homeowners insurance increases next year. In our area prices drop 15% to 20%, market is saturated and is turning in favor of the buyer. Still a bit high ($50K to $70K) over the real value.

My insurance increased about $400.00 this year, but I did received a $3K quote.
Lets hope that hurricanes and fires take a break for 4 to 6 years so we can see the rates drop...

[sunrico90]

The following was the theory that was used on the prediction for the 2006 Hurricanes season...

[sick of South Florida]

Don't know, Don't care, just TG we didn't get one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And hope we don't get anymore before we can get out of South Florida!

[sunrico90]

Originally Posted by sick of South Florida

Don't know, Don't care, just TG we didn't get one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And hope we don't get anymore before we can get out of South Florida!

Sick of South Florida,

So what is your plan? Were you relocating so we can give you the prediction on your future weather or natural disaster location?

I visited 32 states and lived in 5, and floods, blizzards, earthquakes, mud slides, fires, drought, mosquito’s from hell and another 100 weather related topics can affect you has much as a hurricane. Don't matter were you go, something will reach you. By the way don't forget volcanoes (WA state), experienced one in Iceland .

[sunrico90]

Interesting article

For the ones that wanted a definition: Prediction

Foretelling of a future event. Predictions are probabilistic estimates of future occurrences based upon many different estimation methods, including past patterns of occurrence and statistical projections of current data.

The act of predicting: forecast, outlook, prognosis, prognostication, projection.

2007 Hurricane Predictions
An average hurricane season has between six and fourteen named storms. Of those six to fourteen storms, between four and eight will reach hurricane strength, with one to three of them becoming major hurricanes (reaching winds of over 111 miles per hour). Hurricane predictions issued by Dr. Klotzback’s team indicate that the 2007 hurricane season will be a very active one. There may be as many as nine hurricanes in the 2007 hurricane season. The average, established by Dr. Klotzbach’s team is 5.9. There are expected to be 17 named storms. The average, also established by Dr. Klotzbach’s team, is 9.6. Dr. Klotzbach’s team is predicting that there is a good possibility that a major hurricane will hit the United States in 2007. His forecast indicates an 81% chance that a major hurricane will hit the United States inland along the East Coast in 2006. His 2007 hurricane predictions also show that the Caribbean will see above average hurricane activity this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued 2007 hurricane predictions that there would be between thirteen and sixteen named storms. Of those storms, between 8 and 10 would reach hurricane strength and four to six would go on to become major hurricanes.

Remember that these are only hurricane predictions. However, those living in along the coast should always take precautions and be prepared in case of a hurricane hits.

source: 2007 Hurricane Predictions

[CelticLady1]

Good heavens! Must we start hearing about the 2007 predictons, already, (not directed at you, Sunrico. Talking about the scientists!)? We haven't even officially finished this season, until the end of this month., though we need to remember that these are predictions, not something set in stone. But, you are right. You can't get away from disasters, no matter where you go!

[sick of South Florida]

Originally Posted by sunrico90

Sick of South Florida,

So what is your plan? Were you relocating so we can give you the prediction on your future weather or natural disaster location?

I visited 32 states and lived in 5, and floods, blizzards, earthquakes, mud slides, fires, drought, mosquito’s from hell and another 100 weather related topics can affect you has much as a hurricane. Don't matter were you go, something will reach you. By the way don't forget volcanoes (WA state), experienced one in Iceland .

Either North Florida (used to live there) or Alabama (tornadoes, right?). Yeah I know there are disasters no matter where you go but I also have other reasons for wanting out of here.