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Old 11-04-2006, 11:12 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 24,498,701 times
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Maybe we'll have better luck next year. In 38 years of living in South Florida I have only experienced 3 good storm years. 1992, 2004, 2005. Hurricanes are very rare and it's been a long time since a really healthy one hit a nice big target , was it 1926? Anyway don't worry about hurricanes, it's the developers who have destroyed more than any hurricane could hope to. When the big one comes it's just payback time.
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Old 11-10-2006, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Living in Paradise
5,702 posts, read 22,689,223 times
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Interesting article from NOAA in regards to forecast verification...

Readers are reminded that due to natural volatility in tropical cyclone track characteristics, annual errors can vary significantly from year to year. In some of the past 20 years the average forecast errors have departed from the long-term trend line by as much as 50 nautical miles (or nearly 50%). Such aberrations are expected to continue. The number of storms each year can also vary greatly. Statistics for years with particularly few storms might not be representative or statistically significant. For these reasons it is usually not appropriate to extrapolate performance reported in one year to project performance the following year. Projections, such as this GPRA goal, based on long-term trends are preferable.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify8.shtml?
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Old 11-10-2006, 06:31 PM
 
Location: Miami
566 posts, read 1,916,605 times
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Oh that was good...

Maybe, the magnetic field from the Bermuda triangle extended to S.FL??


I for one don't believe in predictions from NOAA or anybody. Mother nature is unpredictable and she will do what she wants, whenever she wants without telling us. All we can do is be thankful that nothing happened and pray it stays this way for awhile.
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