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Old 08-22-2015, 05:45 PM
 
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Thanks for the ACE link!
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Old 08-22-2015, 06:04 PM
 
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Getting a little more active out there but still persistent dry air / dust coming off the Sahara desert in northern Africa, and shear in the Caribbean (as Danny is finding out the hard way).

Tropical Waves:
-First yellow x in photo: NNW of Bermuda, 20% chance of development within the next 5 days, slowly drifting N, expected to merge and head on out to sea with a cold front.
-Second yellow x: Just SW of the Cape Verde islands, similar track to Danny in the short term, 60% chance of development within the next 5 days.
-Third yellow x: About to move off the west African coast, to follow tropical wave above, 30% chance development over the next 5 days.



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Old 08-23-2015, 07:31 PM
 
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Will likely have "Erika" within the next 24 hours or so in the Atlantic behind Danny. Currently halfway between the west coast of Africa and the eastern Caribbean, called "98L" for the time being.

Model suggested potential paths: (**Keep in mind more then a few days out isn't considered reliable so take with a grain of salt...doesn't mean a turn out to sea path**)


Model suggested possible strength over time:


Sat image:


There's yet another wave coming off of west Africa as well behind this one.
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Old 08-28-2015, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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August one of my worst months for Humidity. All because of that Bermuda High sotting there most times in August which can carry over to September. But it makes it ripe for Tropics to come alive and come near East coast.

August 2013 and 2014 were very tolerable. Air was not humid most days.

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Old 08-28-2015, 04:25 PM
 
Location: Miami,FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
August one of my worst months for Humidity. All because of that Bermuda High sotting there most times in August which can carry over to September. But it makes it ripe for Tropics to come alive and come near East coast.

August 2013 and 2014 were very tolerable. Air was not humid most days.
So what would u think of a summer with avg of 91/79 with dew point 82/78?
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Old 08-28-2015, 04:30 PM
 
Location: Key Biscayne, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miamihurricane555 View Post
So what would u think of a summer with avg of 91/79 with dew point 82/78?
Dewpoint 82-78

This summer Miami Beach's Avg DP has been 72F with a High Low of 88/77

Last edited by AJ1013; 08-28-2015 at 05:29 PM..
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Miami,FL
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Originally Posted by AJ1013 View Post
Dewpoint 82-78

This summer Miami Beach's Avg DP has been 73F with a High Low of 88/77
I didn't say it was Miami, those specs are of my fictional dream climate. In addition to June-September being 91/79 with an avg dew point of 82/78 during wetter parts of the rainy season and a dew point of 77/71 when the Saharan dust layer moves in. Also, an average 22 or 23 rainy days per month with a 64% chance of tropical storm conditions being experienced in any given year and a 32% chance of hurricane in any given year and a 16% chance of a major hurricane in a given year and a 3% chance of a category 5 in any given year.
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:30 PM
 
Location: Key Biscayne, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miamihurricane555 View Post
I didn't say it was Miami, those specs are of my fictional dream climate. In addition to June-September being 91/79 with an avg dew point of 82/78 during wetter parts of the rainy season and a dew point of 77/71 when the Saharan dust layer moves in. Also, an average 22 or 23 rainy days per month with a 64% chance of tropical storm conditions being experienced in any given year and a 32% chance of hurricane in any given year and a 16% chance of a major hurricane in a given year and a 3% chance of a category 5 in any given year.
So like Miami on steroids?
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:35 PM
 
Location: Miami,FL
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Originally Posted by AJ1013 View Post
So like Miami on steroids?
pretty much so a 100 year wind gust would be around 180-190mph
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:37 PM
 
Location: Key Biscayne, FL
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Originally Posted by miamihurricane555 View Post
pretty much
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