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Old 09-27-2015, 06:13 AM
 
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Sun 9/27/2015 - 8amEST update:


(See post above from last night for Atlantic)


East Pacific:






Area 1 (Yellow X, with no.1 beside it in sat photo): Located about 1,000 miles from the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Expected to move N or NE. The NHC gives this system a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Tropical Storm Marty: As of 8amEST TS Marty has winds of 60mph, moving N at 6mph, pressure 997mb. Located about 265 miles SW of Acapulco, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watch issued from Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico. (Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the Watch area, generally within 48 hours). Marty is expected to turn from N to the NNE or NE through Monday. Could become a hurricane today, but then conditions become unfavorable with shear increasing and closer interaction with land are expected to start weakening Marty. Marty is also foretasted to turn back out to sea starting Tuesday as it continues to weaken. At this time it could bring 1-3in rain, isolated 5in through Tuesday.





Central Pacific:



Tropical Storm Niala 11pmHST 9-26-2015 HST / 5amEST 9-27-2015 update: Weakening TS. Located about 240 miles SSE of Hilo Hawaii, or about 435 miles SE of Honolulu, Hawaii. Winds down to 50mph, moving WSW at 8mph, pressure 999mb. Tropical Storm Watch for Hawaii County (The Big Island). Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 105 miles from the storms center. Rainfall of 2-8in with isolated 12in possible on the big island, with mud slides a possibility. Large surf along the coast for the surfers along the E and SE facing coast into the start of the work week. Niala has run into wind shear and is falling apart. Tight pressure gradient between TS Niala (a low pressure system) and a High pressure system to its NNE will cause strong trade winds across much of Hawaii through Monday night. Niala will be heading into very warm waters (30 C / 86 F) as it leaves the Hawaii area but wind shear should finish it off regardless.







Western Pacific:

Dangerous Typhoon Dujuan heading for Taiwan!!

Typhoon Dujuan current winds 125kts (144mph) SUSTAINED, gust to 150kt (173mph), moving WNW at 8kts (9mph). Located 320 miles ESE of Taipei, Taiwan. This storm is still strengthening. Foretasted to increase winds possibly up to 130kts (150mph) sustained, gust to 160kts (180mph) before reaching Taiwan. An eyewall replacement cycle is possible before landfall, giving a very brief window of a weaker storm but at this strong its still going to be a big storm. HUGE eye of 43 miles diameter. Expected to cross over or very near the Taiwan coast and then head into China.

You can follow Taiwan news and/or also two storm chasers on Twitter at @iCyclone (tries to get into the eye at landfall) and @EarthUncutTV (usually ends up near the eye and great quality shoreline videos of huge waves before landfall) following this storm. You don't have to have a twitter account to see their post...just Google each name and a direct link will come up.

The mountains of Taiwan will create a VERY DANGEROUS mudslide and flooding threat. They have had other storms already dump several FEET of rain in some areas this summer and this one will likely do the same.
















Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea:

A low pressure system well S of India has a low chance of development. No other storms expected over the next few days.

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Old 09-28-2015, 09:46 AM
 
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Typhoon Dujuan made landfall on the East coast of Taiwan Monday afternoon (around sunrise EST Monday). Preliminary wind gust at one observation in Taiwan recorded a 153mph gust. The storm weakened some right before landfall. Off the coast of Taiwan a Japanese island recorded 181 mph gust!
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Old 09-28-2015, 06:09 PM
 
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Mon 9-28-2015 - In lieu of trying to explain all the complexities going on in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic tonight, I would instead urge you listen / watch this great video below posted by twitter user TropicalTidbits ( https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits ) on all the factors at play right now and what that potentially means through this week and into the weekend:

https://youtu.be/Lb4zl54_XKs
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Old 10-13-2015, 05:39 AM
 
Location: San Francisco, CA, USA
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Thanks a lot. It was really informative
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Old 10-13-2015, 09:33 AM
 
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Tue 10/13/2015:

Atlantic:

No tropical development expected over the next 5 days.

Next week a few models have been hinting at something maybe trying to form south of Cuba and possibly out to sea through the Bahamas. Will have to wait and see if anything actually develops.


East Pacific:
A low well south of the southern tip of Baja California is moving westward. Currently has an 80% chance of developing within the next 5 days.


Central Pacific:
Tropical Storm Nora is about 590 miles SE of Hilo, Hawaii moving NW. Currently expected to very slowly weaken over the next several days and eventually dissipate south of Hawaii.


West pacific:
-Tropical Storm is moving generally Westward. Depending on a possible turn later this week the storm could potentially impact the Philippians as a strong Typhoon.

-Tropical Depression currently expected to slowly strengthen and head in the general direction of Guam / Saipan / Mariana Islands later in the week.


Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea:
No storm formation expected in near future.
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Old 10-18-2015, 06:32 PM
 
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Sun 10/18/2015 - models still hint at a disturbance in / near the Gulf of Mexico and maybe into the Gulf Coast states by next weekend, but this has been shifting more and more westward. Result, for now, appears to be an area of scattered showers and storms into the western Gulf of Mexico and into Mexico, Texas, and possibly Lousinana. But as long as it stays farther to the West then main area may stay over land or close enough to land resulting in no actual tropical development.

Bottom line, scattered showers likely eastern Mexico into Texas. Keep an eye on it to make sure it stays that way.
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Old 10-20-2015, 08:20 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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AMS-The arbitrary definition of the current Atlantic major hurricane landfall drought

https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather/st...97452963332096
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Old 10-30-2015, 07:49 AM
 
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Fri 10/30/2015 Update:

Atlantic:
An area of disorganized storms has a 10% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves Westward across the Atlantic. Upper-level winds expected to limit development for now.

Pacific:
All is quiet.

Arabian Sea:
Cyclone Chapala could be a CAT5 shortly. May make landfall into Yemen (active civil war on-going) or Oman and then what remains into Saudi Arabia. Will be interesting to see how it reacts with the dry deserts.
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