U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-30-2015, 05:51 PM
 
8 posts, read 5,666 times
Reputation: 39

Advertisements

I wouldn't be surprised if Joaquin became a Category 2 hurricane soon. The latest recon flight is showing a storm that is quite a bit stronger than it was earlier this afternoon.

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-30-2015, 06:03 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,194 posts, read 56,660,810 times
Reputation: 12814
8pm update from NHC. Joaquin Strengthened into a Cat 2.

Now with 105mph sustained winds. Possible eye developing. 10 mph away from major Cat 3 now.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
800 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS JOAQUIN STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

The 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Joaquin
has been drifting southward during the past few hours, but a general
motion toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) is expected through
Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and north is forecast
Thursday night or Friday. The center of Joaquin is expected to
move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and
Thursday, and be near or over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas
Thursday night or Friday.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to become
a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 954 mb (28.17 inches).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-30-2015, 06:07 PM
 
8 posts, read 5,666 times
Reputation: 39
We got a category 2 hurricane.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-30-2015, 06:22 PM
 
4,299 posts, read 2,179,180 times
Reputation: 1576
Pressure dropping quickly again, last few frames of visible sat show increased storm activity as well....strengthening storm...could hv cat 3 by early Thursday.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-30-2015, 06:37 PM
 
4,299 posts, read 2,179,180 times
Reputation: 1576
Rapid intensification ongoing....could have cat 3 momentarily....
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-30-2015, 06:55 PM
 
4,299 posts, read 2,179,180 times
Reputation: 1576
Newer intensity models picking up the strengthening storm:

Notice the sharp drop off around 72-96 hours out too.

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-30-2015, 07:38 PM
 
4,299 posts, read 2,179,180 times
Reputation: 1576
Just to give you a sample of some of the models. 180 degree spread is NOT what you want to see, with divergence by Friday in most of the models. With continued trend to the left of some models and more to the right with others...another reason why those weather balloons and continued reconnaissance flights into the storm are so vital.

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-30-2015, 08:30 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,194 posts, read 56,660,810 times
Reputation: 12814
NAM running now... follow Mike to see what it does when it finishes loading..


https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/649410357958680577
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-30-2015, 08:56 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,194 posts, read 56,660,810 times
Reputation: 12814
11pm update. Hurricane Hunters confirm Joaquin now a Major Hurricane and could strengthen even more. Minimum Pressure down to 951mb. Wow!

WS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...JOAQUIN BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

t 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 73.1 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. A turn
toward the northwest and north is forecast Thursday night or Friday.
The center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of
the central Bahamas overnight and Thursday, and be near or over
portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible Thursday night and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
data is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the Central Bahamas
in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal
tide levels is expected in the Northwest Bahamas within the
Hurricane Warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the Southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-30-2015, 09:16 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,194 posts, read 56,660,810 times
Reputation: 12814
Here's a look at some of the Hurricane Hunters messages around the center of it.

White Circles with numbers is the NHC's current track/intensity. They think Cat 2 into NC/VA

But look at the air temp, dewpoint, winds and Pressure in those messages.

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top