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Old 10-01-2015, 06:28 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...60579217059840
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Old 10-01-2015, 06:32 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,070 posts, read 56,501,135 times
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I think America needs to go to school again or ask the Europeans how they do it. I mean the Euro even beat the hurricane models which are specifically designed FOR HURRICANES!!! And I say Stop throwing money into the GFS...just give up already

https://twitter.com/WeatherNut27/sta...57966899814400
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Old 10-01-2015, 06:35 AM
 
62 posts, read 64,932 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
BREAKING NEWS:::

Latest GFS now veers East and does not hit the U.S.

I believe the thing became too strong too fast and therefore it is very hard to pull back into the U.S as is.

The days young..... just saying. Prep anyway
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Old 10-01-2015, 07:34 AM
 
Location: Arlington, VA —> North Carolina in October
24,692 posts, read 35,177,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
I was in Hampton Roads for Isabel. They remember it well there still.
That happened when I was in HS and living in Hampton. The back deck of moms house lost a good 6 ft of land to erosion.
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Old 10-01-2015, 09:49 AM
 
31,790 posts, read 21,334,503 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
I think America needs to go to school again or ask the Europeans how they do it. I mean the Euro even beat the hurricane models which are specifically designed FOR HURRICANES!!! And I say Stop throwing money into the GFS...just give up already

https://twitter.com/WeatherNut27/sta...57966899814400
seems like it's a little early to be saying this.
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Old 10-01-2015, 10:04 AM
 
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Midday models rolling in. More shifting east. Not set in stone yet. We're heading in the right direction at least in that the models are starting to get a little more together in lieu of all over the place = confidence in track can FINALLY start to rise from near 0. Will need more consistency into Friday.
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Old 10-01-2015, 10:18 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Nobody talking about the Bahamas?

Imagine that, a strengthening hurricane that moves "south" towards the Bahamas. Were those folks and tourists ready for that????

https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/st...84364179755008
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Old 10-01-2015, 10:22 AM
 
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At Thurs 10/1/2015 - 12pmEST - hurricane hunter in Joaquin is picking up pressure down into the 930'smb = strengthening. Likely Cat4 shortly. A very tiny eye is forming now. Winds at 11amEST were 125mph, moving SE at 6mph, pressure 942mb.

Bahamas:
VERY dangerous situation there in the central Bahamas currently.
-The center of the storm is just to the SE of San Salvador with strongest winds appearing to be offshore SE from them.
-The eye has passed over Samana Cays.
-Crooked Island is likely getting the southern eyewall now or very shortly. Going to be very dangerous there with storm surge, rains, and strong winds.
-Mayaguana has the storm center just to its NW.


Joaquin still expected to turn W / NW / N Friday. That puts Long Island Bahamas, Port Nelson, San Salvador, Cat Island, and others in this area in danger of feeling the full effects of this storm through Friday, pulling away more quickly Saturday. Outlying areas will also see heavy rains, increased tide levels, and strong winds, although right near the center would be where the strongest are found and less as you head away from the center, and mainly will be in heavier squalls.

Near the eye, storm surge of 5-10 ft is likely (tidal level rises that much with waves on top). Elsewhere in the Bahamas 2-4 ft rise in sea level through Friday as storm tracks through.
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Old 10-01-2015, 12:04 PM
 
4,253 posts, read 2,151,265 times
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Thurs 10/1/2015 - 2pmEST - Joaquin upgraded to Cat 4, winds 130mph, moving SW at 6mph, pressure 936mb.

Bahamas to feel hurricane conditions through the night into Friday. VERY long time to deal with that.
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Old 10-01-2015, 01:06 PM
 
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18z guidance. Track is still a mess, and several models still have an east coast landfall.
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