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Old 10-01-2015, 01:30 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,104 posts, read 56,561,160 times
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Evacutations underway in Virginia.. You have to remember the surge and rainfall as well! This is a MAJOR storm. I don't know which thread to post anymore.

https://twitter.com/MartinMMC/status/649667014550757376
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Old 10-01-2015, 02:03 PM
 
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Ocracoke island is a barrier island SW / adjacent to Cape Hatteras, NC. Only accessible by ferry. Very small.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Cape Hatteras to South of nags head added simply because the sand dunes have been hit so hard by nor Easter last week and haven't been built back up and are completely gone in some spots. But for now only the O. Island.
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Old 10-01-2015, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Afternoon Hurricane Models only. 7 hit the East coast. 8 go OTS. 1 stays close to coast but no land hit/

Lost the link, sorry, see image for it I think.

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Old 10-01-2015, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Key Biscayne, FL
5,696 posts, read 2,915,518 times
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Go CLP 5
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Old 10-01-2015, 02:59 PM
 
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Thurs 10/1/2015 - 5pmEST - official NHC track shifts east as models go east as well. Not set in stone but much better agreement.
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Old 10-01-2015, 03:00 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,104 posts, read 56,561,160 times
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5pm Update. Max Winds still sustained at 130mph with higher gusts and it's crawling SW at 6mph. Pressure 936mb. Seems like it's at its peak intensity now.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 JOAQUIN MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 74.4W
ABOUT 15 M....25 KM NW OF CROOKED ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 74.4 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a westward or
southwestward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north is
expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central
Bahamas tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern
Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight and Friday, with some fluctuations in intensity possible
Friday night and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).

Quote:
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other
portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands through tonight.

STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening
flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of
eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States tonight and spread
northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of
Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and
large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant
beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
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Old 10-01-2015, 03:31 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,104 posts, read 56,561,160 times
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GREarth tracks the path the Hurricane Hunters took (in real time) So cool! And with each pass data is returned back. Also from the radiosonde drops. Check out what they found and where. They even have rainfall rates.

1 spot they found a 936 Pressure with 11kt winds, not the center.
The other they found a 941mb pressure with 103kt winds.
And a 962mb pressure with 129 kt winds which is interesting and surprising to me. Area with Higher Pressure had stronger winds.
They found the Center to be where the L is.

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Old 10-01-2015, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,104 posts, read 56,561,160 times
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[cough cough]

44.5 Million dollars spent in upgrading the GFS because everyone was aware how accurate Euro was with Sandy... How about now with Joaquin? Will they try to upgrade again? I do see another phase rolls out in October? Still... wasn't even close to competing with the Euro for Joaquin.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/4656075ee47041638fdd4c953377926c/weather-service-boost-its-computer-power-forecasting

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Old 10-01-2015, 06:12 PM
 
38 posts, read 45,267 times
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Computers and computer models are still only as smart as the humans who create the model to begin with. Sure, computing power and computational speed/accuracy is important, but if the U.S. just spent $44.5 million on increasing computing capacity without a similar investment in the mathematical introspection required by *people* to evaluate the quality of the model they have created and using, it's sort of money ill-spent. The Euro has not outperformed the U.S. model (even our hurricane-specific models!) because they have faster computers. They obviously have a different model with very different weights/inputs/structure.
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Old 10-01-2015, 06:56 PM
 
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Sometimes its good to have different....you catch things others don't see like the Euro did in this particular case (thus far at least). Although best is they all agree and are all right. Thus interpretation of the models becomes key.
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