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Old 10-01-2015, 08:00 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,190 posts, read 56,660,810 times
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00z update... pretty much a lock now for a fish storm.

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/...64897698508801
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Old 10-01-2015, 08:56 PM
 
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10/1/2015 - Thursday evening update on conditions in the Bahamas:
(this update will only focus on the Bahamas area).

Bahamas island chain outlined in red for reference, small grey dot towards southeast of the chain in this photo is about where center of hurricane is:


Other images of storm this evening:







A Hurricane Warning (hurricane conditions expected somewhere in the warning area) is posted for:
-Northwestern Bahamas including Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, New Providence Bahama
-All islands in the central Bahamas
-Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch (hurricane conditions possible) is posted for:
-Bimini and Andros Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is posted for:
-Rest of the southeastern Bahamas
-Turks and Caicos Islands
-Andros Island
-Cuban providence's of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Guantanamo, and Holguin.




8pmEST Storm center Location:



Closer view:


Even closer:



Storm center located 8pmEST at the red dot above at 22.9N 74.5W

This is about 25 miles (45km) ESE of Clarence Town, Long Island Bahmas, or about 75 miles (120km) S of San Salvador Bahamas.



Track:


Currently moving WSW at a slow 5mph. I've been through the remnants of several hurricanes, some that lasted a long time, and after many hours the storm 'excitement' part wears off and just this noise of wind starts to get to you. You know what I mean if you've been in one. But I CANNOT imagine what a powerful CAT4 is like for hours upon hours upon hours like that with all its power/effects. There are people down in this right now. Fortunately the more highly populated areas are towards Nassau in the western Bahamas but these other islands being affected right now do have populations. People who make a living there, call this their home and businesses, their country.

The storm is expected to continue its slow journey through the south central Bahmas to the WSW, with a turn expected to the West like during the night Thursday night (tonight). A turn to the North is expected sometime Friday and an increase in forward movement speed finally Friday night into Saturday. By midday Saturday across the Bahamas should quickly improve and start to clear out into the afternoon.




Effects / Conditions to islands:
Joaquin's eye looked to have hit Samana Cay (N/NE of Crooked Island) earlier this morning (Thursday) when its winds were around 120mph.

It then tracked slowly to Crooked Island with likely intense constant winds near the eye, high gust, 5-10 foot storm surge was possible, and likely structural damage and trees down.

Mayaguana appears to have been spared the worse but still should have had strong winds there.

Long Island Bahamas is now getting the left eye wall and center, with worst conditions toward the southern end of the island. Expect full force of hurricane here. Will be a lot of destruction with this speed and slow movement. Hoping that like many of the Caribbean houses that they are cement.

Based on sat images it appears Rum Cay, San Salvador Island, Conception Island have ongoing winds to hurricane strength with the eye wall to their S probably sparing them the worst conditions so far but that could change for Rum Cay and Conception Island depending on exact track of the expected turn (if turns very sharply north very soon). The island to the NW of Long Island Bahama should be feeling Hurricane conditions very soon if not already tonight, depending on exact track the eye wall may come very close to them or track more along over Long Island Bahama, and Cat Island to the north.

Questions remain on exact track into Friday and that will have BIG implications on Eleuthera island just NW of Cat Islan on if eye stays just to their east or goes over part of the island.

Nassau is going to be cutting it close but track as of tonight keeps the eye and strongest winds off to their east with strong Tropical Storm winds likely there, same for Great Abaco....but any nudge or too long tracking to the W and that starts to change things for the worse.

If you are in these areas, PLEASE listen to your local government and weather updates! Do not rely on a message board post!

The islands mentioned above that encounter the eye wall will experience very strong hurricane winds likely 125-140mph sustained into Friday. The good news with strong hurricanes, if you can say that..., is that this is usually only right in the eyewall in the strongest of the storms associated with the eye itself. Bands near the eye will have very strong hurricane sustained winds with higher gust. Near the eye could see storm surge of 5-10 feet in areas of onshore wind flow, and 2-4 feet elsewhere in the hurricane warned areas.

Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles out from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend up to 185 miles from the center.

Large waves will be produced by the storm. Rainfall totals could easily be 10-15 inches over the central Bahamas and isolated 20".


Photos / Video links so far seen:

Link to Twitter video from Crooked Island earlier today:
https://twitter.com/SavageNation/sta...64477395685376

Crooked Island (I think screen shots from video above):


Supposedly Long Island Bahama or Crooked Island:


Supposedly Crooked Island:


Long Island Bahama:

Last edited by Psychoma; 10-01-2015 at 10:10 PM..
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Old 10-01-2015, 09:08 PM
 
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Thurs 10/1/2015 - 11pmEST: Another big shift to the East with W movement at 3mph, starting that turn, pressure 935mb, winds 130mph sustained. Bermuda could have Watches or Warnings posted by Friday:

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Old 10-02-2015, 04:12 AM
 
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Fri 10/2/2015 - 5amEST update:

Winds 130mph, moving NW at 3mph, pressure 935mb.

Located about 20 miles NE of Clarence Long Island, Bahamas, or about 50 miles SSW of San Salvador.






Watches/Warnings:
A Hurricane Warning still for:
-Northwestern Bahamas including Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, New Providence Bahama
-All islands in the central Bahamas
-Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch still for:
-Bimini and Andros Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning still for:
-Rest of the southeastern Bahamas
-Turks and Caicos Islands
-Andros Island
-Cuban providence's of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Guantanamo, and Holguin.



Strength:
Joaquin is likely to have peaked in intensity yesterday evening. It's looking much more ragged then compared to just 12 hours or so ago. Pressure is still low though = not ready to give it up yet, but would suspect pressure to start rising today which would indicate weakening trend to have begun. By this evening shear is expected to start disrupting Joaquin as it begins to interact with the trough moving across the Eastern US. This should result in a gradual weakening trend but may be a Cat3 through the day Saturday. But then more quickly start to weaken as it reaches colder waters later Sunday night into the day Monday when its somewhere between VA and Bermuda. It could even loose hurricane status or be a weak hurricane by late Tuesday.





Track:

The US East coast need to continue to monitor this storm for changes. Remember, this is a VERY complex setup and sudden changes in track, especially towards 4-5 days out can happen.

Joaquin has begun its turn as anticipated today. It is currently just to the East of Long Island, Bahamas but t he outer eyewall is basically running parallel to that islands coast likely bringing very strong winds with it. Expected to continue to turn to the N later today and even the NE. This will likely bring the center near/over Rum Cay, Conception Island, near/over San Salvador, near/over SE portions of Cat Island. Keep in mind that's where the center is likely to track and hurricane force winds extend 50 miles (85km) out from the center, tropical storm force 205 miles (335km).



This will allow the Bahamas to FINALLY see Joaquin and its effects subside starting late tonight in many areas into Saturday with steady and more rapid improvement through the day Saturday.



Models in the short term are finally in better agreement and for the FIRST time on this storm the NHC actually said "trending toward the latest multi-model consensus." (talking about Friday into Saturday track).

Models, for now, keep the center of the storm somewhere between VA and Bermuda but Watches or Warnings for Bermuda may be issued later today.

*Unfortunately our technology and knowledge of hurricanes still means that 3-5 days out from now (which would be Monday AM - Wed AM) is prone to errors of several hundred miles off. And some models towards 5 days out have shifted back west including the one that's been right for the last several days.

The 5 day track image shown above from the NHC is in good agreement with the models but towards Tuesday into Wednesday some models do bring the storm into extreme southeastern New England / Cape Cod / Nova Scotia area as it likely races parallel to the coast.

Again, this far out (4-5 days) is prone to errors of several hundred miles with our current knowledge and technology (although a LOT better then we were just a few years ago).

The NHC states this morning:
"2. The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the
United States east coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic
states, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas
is decreasing.
However, there is still uncertainty in how close
Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape
Cod, and Nova Scotia
during the next several days, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the
hurricane. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for
Bermuda later today.

3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as
possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the
storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.

4. Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds
associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate
coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy
rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding
over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products
issued by local NWS Forecast Offices."

Last edited by Psychoma; 10-02-2015 at 04:23 AM..
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Old 10-02-2015, 04:59 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,190 posts, read 56,660,810 times
Reputation: 12814
Some crazy pictures there. You can only imagine what they are going through with a Cat 4. I'm sure power is out and so we're not getting a good feed of the damage yet.

A Major Hurricane that goes South, then stops and makes a U-Turn is always rough underneath it!

Overnight models continue further east with its track.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

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Old 10-02-2015, 08:27 AM
 
Location: Punta Gorda, FL
773 posts, read 598,058 times
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Those poor people in the Bahamas. That thing has been sitting there grinding away at those tiny islands for what probably seems like forever.

If you check out Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions - AIS Marine Traffic you can see how the ships are skirting around the hurricane.
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Old 10-02-2015, 10:10 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,190 posts, read 56,660,810 times
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Did everyone on those Island evacuate? I mean yeah, this is not a little storm. A Cat 3-4 sitting there for days?! WTF. I assume the coastline is reshaping.

Here's the latest showing the surface winds. White flags are obviously 60mph+ SUSTAINED. Sitting and spinning since Wednesday night I believe.

Notice the East side of the Hurricane as usual has the strongest winds. This software doesn't have radar outside the U.S and Southern Canada.

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Old 10-02-2015, 11:39 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,190 posts, read 56,660,810 times
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11am update. .. New one out within few minutes but just posting the 11am update for now..


NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JOAQUIN NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AS IT BATTERS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF RUM CAY BAHAMAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 74.8 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a northward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the
northeast is expected tonight with an additional increase in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest
winds of Joaquin will continue moving over portions of the central
and northwestern Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from
the Bahamas tonight and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to
begin on Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure from Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is
939 mb (27.73 inches).


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Old 10-02-2015, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,190 posts, read 56,660,810 times
Reputation: 12814
Yeah.. I am fearing we'll be seeing some eye openers from the Bahamas. We haven't seen anything yet.

Just try to fatham a MOVING CAT 4 Hurricane now imagine a Parked CAT 3/4 Hurricane for days. I cannot fatham that.

We might be seeing some crazy destruction and even some areas on the island just wiped out. I don't know how they are dealing with it if they are still there. Did they even have time to evacuate?
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Old 10-02-2015, 12:00 PM
 
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I was there (Harbor island) for two weeks this summer. There is no way they had time or had the $$ to evacuate. I imagine the reason why we aren't seeing anything is because power is down. The weather while I was there was beautiful the entire time and it seemed like power was out everyday once or twice... their power station is a bunch of diesel generators the size of tractor trailers.
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