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Old 10-02-2015, 04:05 PM
 
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Incredible video of the winds on San Salvador Bahamas from Hurricane Joaquin posted while ago:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd_4CEt02ts
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Old 10-02-2015, 04:14 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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He's Weakening. Pressure starting to rise, winds drop but still a Major Hurricane. Notice the direction of movement now. NORTH.

500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

...JOAQUIN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS THE EYE PASSES NEAR SAN SALVADOR
ISLAND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
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Old 10-03-2015, 04:42 AM
 
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Sat 10/3/2015 - 5amEST update: Winds 125mph, moving NE at 13mph, pressure 945mb.

In Short:
-Storm slowly weakening (still CAT3).

-Increased confidence in out to sea track.

-Leaving Bahamas, slow clearing there throughout the day (higher/rough surf will continue but better), and worst is over.

-Large US flagged cargo ship with 28 US citizens and 5 Polish nationals that left Jacksonville, FL missing in Bahamas after sending distress call Thursday (see last section for details)

-Another cargo ship, Bolivian flagged, south of Bahamas has sank, but all 12 crew members were rescued by helicopter (see last section for details).

-Bermuda Watches/Warnings issued for possible near miss/graze Sunday as a weaker storm.

-Now into early next week large waves, rip current threat, more beach erosion, and continued higher tides work their way up the US East coast from the hurricane as it passes well offshore (combination of multiple systems causing higher on-shore winds and higher tides now)




Detailed Version:

Watches/Warnings:
Hurricane Warning continues for central Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas including Acklins, Crooked Islands, and Mayaguana. Will likely change to Tropical Storm Warnings later this morning / midday.

Tropical Storm Warning for rest of southeastern Bahamas including Turks and Caicos Islands.

Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.

Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.



Strength:
Winds currently 125mph (strong CAT3). The expected weakening trend will continue today followed by a little faster weakening sometime Sunday as it hits colder waters and interacts with the stirring environment around it.



Tropical Storm force winds expected to reach Bermuda starting Sunday morning, Hurricane force winds possible (depending on exact track) by Sunday afternoon.

Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles outward from the center. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center.


Track:
Currently located about 120 miles NE of San Salvador, Bahamas or about 700 miles SW of Bermuda. Forward speed is quickly increasing, up to 13mph now and expected to slowly increase. Conditions in the Bahamas should continue to improve and many will see the sun come out in spots today. Moving towards the NE and a turn toward the NNE on Sunday is expected. Currently expected to keep the center of the storm to the West of Bermuda Sunday. Models in good agreement on keeping Joaquin out to sea and away from the US East coast.




Effects:
Conditions in the Bahamas should continue to rapidly improve today. Some scattered showers possible, breezy. High/rough surf will continue but begin to slowly wind down over the next few days.

Bermuda expecting 3-5 inches of rain. Tropical Storm force winds likely early Sunday, hurricane force possible depending on exact track by midday Sunday into Sunday evening. Conditions should start to improve late Sunday night into Monday early morning, clearing later Monday afternoon/evening. High/rough surf will persist.

US East Coast can expect larger waves, especially off-shore, from Hurricane Joaquin. This will help continue the higher tides / coastal flooding that many along the coast are already seeing. Continued beach erosion will persist into the middle of next week or so. Many beaches along the SE US coast and up into portions of the NE have been hit by severe beach erosion, including protective sand dune loss, from multiple coastal storms over the past week and a half to two weeks. Large waves off shore will make it dangerous for any smaller craft to operate. Larger vessels off the Mid-Atlantic US Coast will see large and dangerous waves as well, not commonly found in that area.



Dangerous rip currents are likely along the US East coast, Bermuda, and the Bahamas this weekend into early next week.

Current tidal flooding this past week from off shore winds:











Missing Cargo Ship - Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Scare turns out to be Search and Rescue task:
A US flagged cargo ship has gone missing is the El Faro that left Jacksonville, FL Tuesday for Puerto Rico. They should have been well aware of the conditions on their route BUT when they left Tuesday Joaquin was a weak Tropical Storm. It was Wednesday evening when the storm underwent rapid intensification and went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 3 in a very short time period, later strengthening to a Cat4. It is currently believed the 735 foot cargo ship became disabled and was at the mercy of the seas as it approached off the central Bahamas with a rapidly intensifying hurricane. Contact was lost Thursday morning after reporting loss of power, a hatch was allowing water into the ship, and had a 15 degree list. Last report was believed to be received somewhere possibly near Crooked Island Bahamas, near the where the eye was at the time. 33 crew members on board: 28 US citizens, 5 Polish.

A US Coast Guard C130 is following the storm as it pulls out as close as it can to the southern edge of the storm to try and spot / make contact with the ship and crew members. They're flying about 2,000 feet off the water to search visually and with tech on board. US Coast Guard is tasking several ships to aid in the search.

On Friday 10/2/2015 the live data stream from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft inside the eye of Hurricane Joaquin showed altitude readings suddenly plummeted. It was learned shortly after the aircraft was tasked with aiding in the search for the missing cargo ship. It descended inside the relatively calm center/eye of the storm to visually search for any signs of the ships whereabouts or possible fate.



The sun should come out in many areas of the Bahamas today, hopefully giving search and rescue a greater visibility and longer daylight period to search for the missing ship.

---

Another ship, a 212 foot Bolivian flagged cargo ship with 12 crew members named Minouche, just south of Great Inagua Bahamas (SW of Turks and Caicos, NE of Cuba, NW of Haiti) became disabled. In rougher seas with no control the cargo shifted resulting in a 30 degree list and the crew abandoned ship. A US Coast Guard cutter vessel was dispatched. The Coast Guard asked for assistance from two commercial vessels in the area which agreed and they were able to locate the distressed ship and crew. A US Coast Guard helicopter first pulled 8 of the 12 crew members up to safety (max able to rescue in helicopter). Upon starting the second lift operation the lifting cable started to fray and the helicopter had to return to Great Inagua. Another helicopter was able to pick up the last 3 crew members. All 12 were rescued and taken to Great Inagua Bahamas. The Minouche sank not long after the crew was rescued.

---

Last edited by Psychoma; 10-03-2015 at 05:24 AM..
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Old 10-03-2015, 08:49 AM
 
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sat 11amEST update: slight lower pressure, slight increase in winds to 130mph. Ran into a small favorable window to reorganize a little. Should go back to steadily weakening by later tonight.
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Old 10-03-2015, 09:36 AM
 
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Actually appears Joaquin may be trying to take full advantage of this small window. Trying to strengthen further. Should still start weakening again tonight as its getting into cooler waters.
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Old 10-03-2015, 09:54 AM
 
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Special advisory issued from NHC: Winds suddenly increase to 155mph sustained! Taking FULL advantage of small window to strengthen!

Edit to add line:
Hurricanes can surprise you like that. Even the NHC had put out an update just an hour before. But recon plane found stronger winds suddenly. Top end Cat4 now. May reach 5 momentarily if strenghtens more. Hard to support that strength much further north with cooler waters soon.

Last edited by Psychoma; 10-03-2015 at 10:08 AM..
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Old 10-03-2015, 10:57 AM
 
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Interest in Bermuda need to pay special attention to Hurricane Joaquin more so now. With the temporary jump in wind speed, this may allow it to be a formidable Cat3 still instead of a much weaker storm as it nears the island. Currently forecasted to pass to the W of Bermuda, a SLIGHT wobble to the right (east) could put Cat3 winds across the island. At least it will be moving through quickly. Stay tuned....
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Old 10-03-2015, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Ummm Say what? Practically a CAT 5 Hurricane now. (156mph = CAT5).


NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

...SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 70.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES



Beautiful Satellite image today of the front & Strong CAT 4 Joaquin moving NE at 18mph with 155mph winds, 933mb!

GOES Project Science

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Old 10-03-2015, 03:41 PM
 
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Does anyone believe that Joaquin could still be a threat to the E. Coast?
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Old 10-03-2015, 06:51 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elusive Enchantment View Post
Does anyone believe that Joaquin could still be a threat to the E. Coast?
Not likely now. Models keep Joaquin offshore, in fact Joaquin is tracking slightly to the right (East) of the models currently. A few models bring it closerto shore, but just off, of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland coast as it heads out to sea. There's always a small chance a change occurs but for the next several days everything looks perfectly set to continue away from the US East coast which gives us more of a buffer several days down the road should something change. But good confidence it will keep out to sea.
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