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Old 10-04-2015, 06:21 AM
 
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Sun 10/4/2015 - 8amEST update:

**Bermuda should rush all storm preparations to completion**

The storm should be its nearest to Bermuda this (Sunday) afternoon and will either pass to their west, but close, or potentially over the island. It is more likely to stay JUST to the west but should still be close enough to bring strong hurricane winds onshore.

From NHC: "DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY"

Winds down to 115mph (minimal CAT3), moving very quickly NE at 21mph, pressure up to 956mb (weakening).

Located about 210 miles SW of Bermuda.

Hurricane Warning for Bermuda.

Outer rainbands hitting them already.

Current Track map:



Storm is moving to NE but a slight turn is still predicted by the NHC to head NNE this morning and has shown some signs of starting to do that. That will still put the center close to Bermuda still. Hurricane force winds extend up to 70 miles from the center, tropical storm force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center.

Wind radii map:




Effects on land (From the NHC 8amEST advisory):
"HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this
afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and
will spread northward along the east coast of the United States
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period
of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office."
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Old 10-04-2015, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Northern Ireland and temporarily England
7,668 posts, read 4,467,243 times
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Oh another one headed for me.
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Old 10-04-2015, 07:59 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sickandtiredofthis View Post
Oh another one headed for me.
Looks like whatever is left of (then former)
Joaquin will reach the other side of the Atlantic towards this coming Saturday / Sunday.
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Old 10-04-2015, 08:26 PM
 
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Sunday evening: Winds 100mph, moving NNE at 14mph. Passed to the West of Bermuda. Stayed far enough away to keep sustained hurricane force winds off the island. They'll continue to see Tropical Storm conditions tonight, mainly in on/off rain bands from Joaquin. Conditions in Bermuda will continue to improve during the night.

Joaquin will continue to weaken at an even quicker pace as it heads over colder waters. Whatever is left of then former Joaquin should arrive in northern Europe around Saturday/Sunday this coming weekend.
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Old 10-05-2015, 05:09 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Awesome look. Only uses 2 of the 4 runs a day. The 00z and 12z runs.

Animation of the GFS track for Joaquin.. Watch it hit the Mid Atlantic with the Sept 30 updates. Then finally 00z on 10/1 it started trending north hitting Rhode Island, then next run 12z goes OTS which would be the correct solution. This doesn't show the 6z or 18z runs nor does it show the updates prior to Sept 28th

Animation
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Old 10-06-2015, 04:54 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,102 posts, read 57,467,650 times
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Still has a warm core but will become extra tropical later today..

HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015

...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC WELL
AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 61.0W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 61.0 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward
the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected
today, with a rapid east-northeastward motion expected Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical cyclone Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Bermuda
and portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are
affecting much of the east coast of the United States and the coast
of Atlantic Canada and should continue during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Even though Joaquin is located well to the east
of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated
water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region,
causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal
flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather
office.



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Old 10-06-2015, 04:59 AM
Status: "Missing the high Sierras " (set 25 days ago)
 
Location: ☀️ SFL (hell for me-wife loves it)
3,483 posts, read 2,422,772 times
Reputation: 11096
What did it do to Bermuda?
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Old 10-06-2015, 05:21 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,102 posts, read 57,467,650 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TerraDown View Post
What did it do to Bermuda?
Very little damage even with 24hrs of Tropical Storm Force winds. The Hurricane winds stayed off shore. Was only a CAT2 and 100+ miles away. They came that close to direct hit.

Little property damage, reports insurer BF&M | The Royal Gazette:Bermuda News

“We have surveyed a good portion of the Island and spoken with certain boatyards, and Bermuda was very fortunate that the severity of the winds was downgraded as it approached and moved past the Island, and that the path of the storm didn’t drift any"
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Old 10-06-2015, 09:21 PM
 
Location: Redding, California
306 posts, read 96,436 times
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I heard about Joaquin on the news tonight. The hurricane produced a very rare event in and around North Carolina. There was a report that someone else's boat was right in front of a neighbor's house because of flooding. Sadly, some people lost their lives due to the catastrophic inundation.
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Old 10-07-2015, 04:51 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,102 posts, read 57,467,650 times
Reputation: 13149
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarbleTurtle View Post
I heard about Joaquin on the news tonight. The hurricane produced a very rare event in and around North Carolina. There was a report that someone else's boat was right in front of a neighbor's house because of flooding. Sadly, some people lost their lives due to the catastrophic inundation.
No... Please read entire thread here and see what caused the rare event in South Carolina. I don't think it was as rare in North Carolina. Maybe the very SE part. And a boat in front of someone's house is a fraction of the problems that happened. The hurricane did not "produce" the rare event.
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