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See post above for invest 98L that became Tropical Depression 6 earlier.
A second Tropical wave is emerging off Africa into the Atlantic. NHC giving it a 20% chance of development next few days already. Looks like a Westward mover for now...one to watch......
Thursday August 18, 2016 update:
Atlantic:
See Tropical Storm Fiona thread for those updates (was 98L, TD6).
Waves coming off Africa to be watched...models wanting to bring them on a lower track than Fiona across the Atlantic but they will still have to get past dry Sahara dusty air and periods of high shear even if they survive to the Carribean. Tis the season!
East Pacific :
An area of disorganized showers offshore, well S of Baja California getting better organized and has 70% chance of development next several days. Moving generally NW, staying offshore for now.
Central Pacific (Hawaii):
A small area of showers has a 10% chance of development as it passes Hawaii to the S.
Thursday August 18, 2016 2pm update:
Atlantic:
Tropical wave SSE of TS Fiona now has a 20% chance of development next several days, moving Westward, under Fiona.
Next Tropical wave to roll off Africa Saturday and into the Atlantic already at a 20% chance of development next several days.
Fiona has helped stir the atmosphere up allowing these next systems a chance to develop as they generally head West. Will have to watch.
Well that paints some interesting scenarios....
(but remember to not focus on one track...many possibilities and WILL change GREATLY over next few days....so the key is a trend....what direction are most models going, what are they hinting as steering factors, etc). This also encompasses multiple poss storm systems.
Grain of salt, grain of salt. Posted for more 'fun' then anything else.
Our technology and knowledge of Science doesn't let us predict Tropical systems out more then a few days accurately.
Well that paints some interesting scenarios....
(but remember to not focus on one track...many possibilities and WILL change GREATLY over next few days....so the key is a trend....what direction are most models going, what are they hinting as steering factors, etc). This also encompasses multiple poss storm systems.
Grain of salt, grain of salt. Posted for more 'fun' then anything else.
Our technology and knowledge of Science doesn't let us predict Tropical systems out more then a few days accurately.
Looks to head for NC from now! I'm ready for any hurricane. We will see how it's track changes day by day.
Thursday, August 18, 2016 8pmEST :
Atlantic:
The tropical wave to the SE of TS Fiona has been designated Invest 99L. Just an area of developing showers. But it now has a 40% chance of development, all signs point to Westward track. Still has to survive the trip across the Atlantic but one to watch for sure.
As mentioned above the next Tropical wave will depart Africa and head into Atlantic Saturday and currently already has a 30% chance of development already.
Getting busy quick! But right on que with peak of season approaching.
East Pacific:
Tropical Depression 12E is S of Southern tip of Baja California. Storm to slowly drift towards the Baja coast. Unsure if will make landfall there as a weak system or just hang out near the coast.
Come on invest 99 your the first thing that has looked promising all year for Florida
Looks more promising for NC though. Any track curving over the Bahamas is an almost guarantee of an NC landfall. Looking at the plots some where around Wilmington, but it way too early to talk about where its going to go when it hasn't even formed!
Looks more promising for NC though. Any track curving over the Bahamas is an almost guarantee of an NC landfall. Looking at the plots some where around Wilmington, but it way too early to talk about where edits going to go when it hasn't even formed!
Don't forget what average margin of error is that far out 300 miles 5 days out and this is about 7 days out.
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