2016 Hurricane Season (General Thread) (historical, winter, Mexico, daily)

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by muslim12

Looks more promising for NC though. Any track curving over the Bahamas is an almost guarantee of an NC landfall. Looking at the plots some where around Wilmington, but it way too early to talk about where edits going to go when it hasn't even formed!

At this point in the summer, a continued westward trek to Florida is as likely as a recurving to NC.

[muslim12]

Originally Posted by miamihurricane555

Don't forget what average margin of error is that far out 300 miles 5 days out and this is about 7 days out.

True, keep in mind the more time it takes to develop the further west it will head before tracking north, so it's also very likely to hit florida.

[Psychoma]

Here's some images from midday 8/21/2016:

99L the one to watch the most, but has to get it's act together first. Still a lot of potential with it.

Fiona a threat for Bermuda currently but only as a weaker storm/depression at this time.

99L heading across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean, with a 20 - 50% chance of development over next 5 days.

90L in the far eastern Atlantic has a 70-90% chance of development over next 5 days.

[Psychoma]

And here's an experimental wind (in knots) map:

[Psychoma]

Monday August 22, 2016 am update:
Atlantic:
-See Fiona thread for updates but not much left.

-Invest 99L (one closest to Carribean) looking lively this morning. NHC has 50% chance development next 5 days currently.


-Invest 90L (just entered Atlantic from Africa) looking impressive. NHC gives it a 100% chance of development so may have Tropical Storm very shortly. Models hint at going out to sea, maybe Bermuda threat. Will have to wait and see how close models take it near the NE US coast (currently show heading general direction before turning out to sea well offshore) but will monitor.

[miamihurricane555]

Invest 99L continuing to get it's act together. NHC now giving it a 40% chance to develop over the next 48 hours along with a 60% chance over the next 5 days.

[miamihurricane555]

Originally Posted by miamihurricane555

Invest 99L continuing to get it's act together. NHC now giving it a 40% chance to develop over the next 48 hours along with a 60% chance over the next 5 days.

NHC now giving it a 50% chance in the short term and 60% overall

[Psychoma]

And here's link to regularly updated close up Satellite Imagery of 99L. Showing signs of life this morning!
99L - Satellite Products and Services Division - Office of Satellite and Product Operations

[Psychoma]

Looks like remnants of Fiona and 99L may meet / have some type of effect on each other. Thoughts??

[muslim12]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

Looks like remnants of Fiona and 99L may meet / have some type of effect on each other. Thoughts??

Depends on who is stronger, Fiona may drag it north and provide a boost of energy.