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Old 01-15-2016, 06:55 AM
 
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With Alex running around the Atlantic (Alex threads can be found here and here) it seems we should start the general 2016 Hurricane thread!

In general this thread will aim to cover general hurricane talk (mainly 2016 season), possible storms forming, the usual long wait chatter before the season gets going in summer, etc. etc.

Any thoughts?

Predictions/fun guesses from yourself or from others?

With El Nino peaked and models appear to show a flip to La Nina or Neutral (in between El Nino and La Nina) the Atlantic may be an active one this year....only time will tell. (Additional info on El Nino / La Nina: here and here).









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Old 01-26-2016, 05:19 AM
 
Location: NH
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AMO is flat and we're definitely entering a -AMO phase; but a flip to La Nada or even La Nina could produce a year similar to '38 or '55. I've seen those years thrown around - and also Alex, being a rare January hurricane would match 1938's "Hurricane One" January 1st, 1938.

I don't expect SST's to be particularly exciting in the MDR, but not sure what anyone else's projections are.
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Old 01-30-2016, 05:47 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BriInNH View Post
AMO is flat and we're definitely entering a -AMO phase; but a flip to La Nada or even La Nina could produce a year similar to '38 or '55. I've seen those years thrown around - and also Alex, being a rare January hurricane would match 1938's "Hurricane One" January 1st, 1938.

I don't expect SST's to be particularly exciting in the MDR, but not sure what anyone else's projections are.
1938, wasn't that the year a massive hurricane worse than sandy hit the northeast? http://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome yep. this hurricane was far more powerful than sandy.
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Old 02-01-2016, 03:06 PM
 
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Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
1938, wasn't that the year a massive hurricane worse than sandy hit the northeast? The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 yep. this hurricane was far more powerful than sandy.
It's a stretch to add up casualty figures, especially for a storm more almost eighty years ago. In truth, Sandy was only a Category 2 when it made landfall in the northeast, while the 1938 hurricane is estimated to have been a Category 3. But wind speed isn't the only determinant of damage. The fact that Sandy came ashore during high tide at a full moon made its tidal force that much more devastating. And while the northeast benefitted from modern forecasting for Sandy, there was no such luxury in 1938.
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Old 02-01-2016, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
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Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
It's a stretch to add up casualty figures, especially for a storm more almost eighty years ago. In truth, Sandy was only a Category 2 when it made landfall in the northeast, while the 1938 hurricane is estimated to have been a Category 3. But wind speed isn't the only determinant of damage. The fact that Sandy came ashore during high tide at a full moon made its tidal force that much more devastating. And while the northeast benefitted from modern forecasting for Sandy, there was no such luxury in 1938.
True but if a category 3 versus 2 were to hit odds are low tide or not, full moon or not, it will be more destructive than sandy or about the same. but still pretty scary to imagine a hurricane of that strength hitting nyc and other major population centers that are not used to tropical storms let alone a major land falling hurricane. The destruction will be at least on par if not greater than sandy. Hopefully this does not repeat the consequences would be devastating, people have not recovered from sandy still and the blizzard a week ago caused quite a bit of damage that ruined homes and businesses so it was a major setback.
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Old 02-02-2016, 04:27 PM
 
Location: NH
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Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
1938, wasn't that the year a massive hurricane worse than sandy hit the northeast? The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 yep. this hurricane was far more powerful than sandy.
Yeah.

In no way am I predicting a redux of 1938 or 1955 ( which featured Carol and Diane), but those years have popped up in analogs, so it's worth mentioning and keeping an eye on.

Flip to a weak -ENSO and I think the east coast of the U.S. will be in business, this year.
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Old 02-02-2016, 09:22 PM
 
Location: New York Area
19,763 posts, read 7,756,055 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
True but if a category 3 versus 2 were to hit odds are low tide or not, full moon or not, it will be more destructive than sandy or about the same. but still pretty scary to imagine a hurricane of that strength hitting nyc and other major population centers that are not used to tropical storms let alone a major land falling hurricane. The destruction will be at least on par if not greater than sandy. Hopefully this does not repeat the consequences would be devastating, people have not recovered from sandy still and the blizzard a week ago caused quite a bit of damage that ruined homes and businesses so it was a major setback.
I have little use for large habitations on beaches. Look at North Carolina, where the ocean-bordering areas are lightly populated. There are plenty of inland areas on Long Island. Stick a major city on the south shore, it's an accident waiting to happen.
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Old 02-18-2016, 08:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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La Nina would lead to a hot Summer in the East and a very active Hurricane Season while a weak El Nino would tend to support a cool Summer like last year with a very quiet Hurricane season.
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Old 02-18-2016, 03:21 PM
 
Location: Seoul
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I feel so bad for whoever lived in the Rockaways, entire neighborhoods were leveled! But New Yorkers are strong people, we united together in times of disaster
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Old 04-07-2016, 07:58 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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The Atlantic cold blob.


https://twitter.com/MarshallMoss/sta...53891234701312
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