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TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT COLIN IS STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 87.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Altamaha Sound to Sebastian Inlet
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Colin. Additional warnings
and watches may be required for parts of this area later this
morning.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 87.4 West. Colin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
today. A rapid northeastward motion is expected tonight and
Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach
the coast of the Florida Big Bend area this afternoon or evening,
move across portions of Florida and southeastern Georgia early
Tuesday morning, and move near the southeastern coast of the United
states later on Tuesday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional slow strengthening is possible
during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas
through Tuesday.
STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.
Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the
Florida East and Georgia coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning
area, as well as in the Tropical Storm Watch area along the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Gulf coast within the warning area this afternoon, and the Atlantic
coast within the warning area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast within the watch
area on Tuesday.
TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
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