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Old 09-15-2016, 09:46 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
556 posts, read 635,875 times
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Possibly a threat to the East Coast in the long term but it's still at least 8-10 days away and anything can happen in that time. Still something to watch for the time being though.
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Old 09-16-2016, 05:56 PM
 
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Friday September 16, 2016 5pmEST update:
Winds 45mph, moving W 14mph, pressure 1005mb. Shear keeping it from strengthening. Shear expected to lesson early next week resulting in strengthening storm moving over warmer waters. Models show Karl being turned up sent out to sea but the other day were showing it escaping to the southwest. Will have to be watched for possible US / Bermuda impacts.

Sahara dust getting wrapped in some.


Intensity models:


Some models from yesterday:
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Old 09-18-2016, 06:44 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWNJ View Post
Possibly a threat to the East Coast in the long term but it's still at least 8-10 days away and anything can happen in that time. Still something to watch for the time being though.

How did you link your image to the NHC site? Is it actually grabbing the latest image constantly or is my web browser playing tricks on me? Interesting!
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Old 09-19-2016, 05:30 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
How did you link your image to the NHC site? Is it actually grabbing the latest image constantly or is my web browser playing tricks on me? Interesting!
I right clicked the image of the track from the page and selected "Open image in new tab" which gives just the track image without all the website stuff. Then I linked it onto here.
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Old 09-19-2016, 07:18 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWNJ View Post
I right clicked the image of the track from the page and selected "Open image in new tab" which gives just the track image without all the website stuff. Then I linked it onto here.
Ok, thanks! I'll have to try that sometime. I usually upload images to Imgur then paste their image link for message board postings.
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Old 09-19-2016, 07:31 PM
 
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Monday September 19, 2016 5pm:

Winds 40mph, moving WNW 12mph, pressure 1006mb.

Finally seeing a burst of energy this evening on satellite. Moisture around the storm is improving and shear is decreasing as Karl heads towards some VERY warm waters between the Caribbean and Bermuda so strengthening is likely. Could have a 100+mph hurricane by end of the week with 29/30 degree Celsius (84-86 Fahrenheit) waters just ahead.

Track models show this re-curving and a possible threat to Bermuda at this time. As the storm strengthens will also likely see higher rip current threat along portions of the SE and E US coast lines by end of the week as well even with the storm staying hundreds of miles offshore.

Regularly updated satellite images of Karl can be found here:
Karl - Satellite Products and Services Division - Office of Satellite and Product Operations

Updated Hurricane information is officially released at 5am/pm and 11am/pm (will also be 2am/pm and 8am/pm if watches/warnings are posted for land anywhere) here: National Hurricane Center







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Old 09-21-2016, 04:13 AM
 
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Wednesday September 21, 2016 5amEST :

Karl has been downgraded to a depression, which the NHC has said is generous. Shear did not let up around the storm as models predicted which tore the storm apart. The storm has also turned Westward. Still expected to turn out to sea and possibly threaten Bermuda.

From NHC: "Global models have totally failed so far in forecasting the upper-level winds surrounding Karl. The upper-low near Karl which unanimously all models have been forecasting to weaken is still strong and producing shear over the cyclone."
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Old 09-21-2016, 01:03 PM
 
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Karl's low level center appears to have "jumped" north closer to convection and less shear = more favorable for development now. Amazing how storms can do that!!

Hurricane Hunters have been around Karl monitoring it for sudden development. Here's a pic they took today:
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Old 09-22-2016, 03:15 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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Karl upgraded back to TS again and a TS warning has now been issued for Bermuda. Still shouldn't be that big of a deal over there though, just moderately heavy rain and gusty winds probably.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 222050
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT KARL IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL
STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 63.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
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Old 09-23-2016, 05:39 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Damn Karl is gonna make surfers in Bermuda excited. Mighty close

https://twitter.com/hbwx/status/779281530279628800
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