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When the inner eye collapses it will force all that energy outwards. So higher wind gusts will extend out further away from center
Frankly by the eye movement in last 12 hours this does not ever cross the coast in Florida. Does not mean major problems wont occur but it just seems like its just got a more North fade than expected.
Analogy: your in a bathtub full of water. Think of the difference when you use your hand to push the water to the side VS when you use your arm.
Its possible Matthew is using his arm now to push the ocean into the coast.
Looks like a lot of the energy is over the Atlantic where the most lightning is and that will force so much water to the coast.
Also.. there is some lightning with 2 eye wall bands. (Poorly shown here) That is not something you see. This storm is just fascinating. Why does it have 2 eye walls and for so long??
#1. That has been sitting there for hours on end same spot flowing from the ocean. I saw rain totals over 5" in spots within that band.
#2. That band has the 100mph+ wind gusts. When that rotates around and hits the coast they will feel it and conditions deteriorate. Should happen around Stuart in couple hours.
#3. Inner Eye wall..looks smaller and the south side of the eye is now open. Collapsing?
#4. That's where my guess is for longer lasting deepest impacts because the center is where the most intense stuff is and that's where it will be the closest too. So high winds will be more consistent
#5. Those rotating bands are causing the power outages gusting to 60mph (CAN YOU IMAGINE 100+?) and the gusts coming from those bands (farther away from the center) is not frequent.. they are coming in bursts spread apart every 15-30 minutes
During the next 12-24 hours, Matthew will likely weaken a little as
it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. After that time, it is
expected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear, and later
in the forecast period dry air is likely to entrain into the
cyclone. This combination should cause steady weakening, and
Matthew is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by 72 hours.
The new intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS
model.
If this does nothing to Florida then public trust next time around will be far less making the threat of loss of life in the next major hurricane for them greater.
As an actual weather forecaster (not in the southeast) this is common place as much as we preach uncertainity that is all has been mentioned uncertainity by the weather folks... now some media do play up the worst case as it drives more ratings....but most mention maybe, could change, etc. Most people do understand that with weather. Some don't. And it are those that while winning out a few times may eventually ride out a storm that they shouldn't. Nothing much can be done for those.
We increasingly deal with in my backyard. As in a snow storm, if a forecast is for 8 to 12 inches and someone measures 6 inch in their yard you hear bust bust of a storm....meanwhile 25 miles away there is 10 inches. They dont look at the overall picture but instead at their location. Ultimately, us mets can do all we can forecasting is just that forecasting not definites. If people listen they do but if they dont they dont, but nothing can be done.
Yep..that north wobble was no illusion. This will keep the hurricane stronger so a longer area of coastline will have high winds...BUT ..the strong northeast quadrant will never touch land. My guess is nobody gets sustained over 100..this should spare any one spot from getting battered. Storm surge will still be very bad in spots ..Especially Georgia coast..
6am dew points. Feeling tropical for sure this morning
Port Canaveral just now reported 102mph wind gust with 78mph sustained. This isn't in occasional spurts, this is happening a lot now as the center is close. Wow
0550 AM HURRICANE 5 NE PORT CANAVERAL 28.46N 80.53W
10/07/2016 BREVARD FL MESONET
USAF WIND TOWER 3 MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 102 MPH/89 KT FROM THE NORTH.
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