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Old 07-03-2017, 04:46 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,108 posts, read 57,474,792 times
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With the way the Jet stream is dipping in Eastern U.S and the fronts coming across its very hard to believe there will be any landfall at this point. The trough is too strong and kicking things out that any Ocean storm will have a hard chance in coming in. There will need to be perfect timing with a front moving off the coast, weakening and the Tropical system moving closer before the next front comes.


Latest GFS (STILL) has it but again just curls it back out.


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Old 07-03-2017, 08:18 PM
 
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Atlantic storm is currently referred to as "94L". 70% chance of development. Lot of models say Tropical Storm within 12-36 hours. Pacific currently 3 storms developing SW and S of Mexico. ''Tis the season!
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Old 07-04-2017, 05:47 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest models still have it but weak. Canadian hits North Carolina.


DONT FORGET THIS SITE!


Here's the latest tracks from different models (Euro not on here).
Note the Canadian is the only one hitting land but also note the crazy spread still. Too far out still.

The more south in Latitude it is, the better the chances of U.S hit or close. IMO.






Very unorganized but Thunderstorms are popping up.









AND Here's another awesome site you can track it with.


http://hurricanecity.com/models/mode...latestinvest=1


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Old 07-04-2017, 07:01 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,108 posts, read 57,474,792 times
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Old 07-04-2017, 01:41 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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This is why we need to constantly watch the models and not buy a few ideas... theres always changes and heres an update..

Biggest change I see in latest updates aside from being a weaker storm is the troughs and cold air is stronger dipping into eastern U.S. (more than 1). implying stronger and colder cold fronts.

I dont doubt the 2 are related. Maybe shearing things more than anticipated prior days which inhibits the storm developing stronger or coming close to land.

There is no way a hurricane can hit the U.S with the Jet stream dipping like it will. Its acting like a goalie blocking and kicking it back to sea.

Still time for more changes especially if the storm wants to take a southern track near bahamas

Heres the latest Euro12z 850mb anomaly Mon July 12th just to show how deep and anomalous the air might be.

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Old 07-04-2017, 08:18 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/hbwx/status/882421843457716225
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Old 07-05-2017, 06:21 AM
 
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8amEST 5 July 2017 - Still time for formation of 94L in Atlantic but conditions become unfavorable after Thursday, 'cooler' waters near it today though which doesn't help the storm.
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Old 07-05-2017, 09:00 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg, VA
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Please pardon a question from a person who doesn't know much about weather. I'm scheduled to move to coastal VA over the next week. If I understand the updates and the charts, I should be fine, and the storm won't be an issue. Is that a correct interpretation?
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Old 07-05-2017, 09:53 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Piney Creek View Post
Please pardon a question from a person who doesn't know much about weather. I'm scheduled to move to coastal VA over the next week. If I understand the updates and the charts, I should be fine, and the storm won't be an issue. Is that a correct interpretation?

Ask a million questions if need be! We're all eager to help/share/point in the right direction! I grew up on coastal VA (well near it in Hampton Roads area (SE VA)). At this time yes, it appears what ever becomes of the current weak blob will stay well offshore to hopefully where you won't even know it was there. Things can always change but it doesn't look good for the storm at this point. But never just assume days from now that will still be the case, always look for updates. The great thing about hurricanes / tropical systems is that you usually have several days notice if something were to change / threaten land. It's never going to suddenly be there without warning if you watch local news / weather site once every day or two. They're usually only moving less then 20mph so super slow traveling distance wise. The (good) thing about VA is that NC sticks out just enough to usually take the brunt of impact of most storms that way. If you want, you can always get storm info directly from the source all news/weather sites get their storm info/track from: National Hurticane Center: National Hurricane Center (only so much info on that page currently since the storm hasn't actually formed / been named yet...just a blob of scattered showers in the Atlantic with some potential).
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Old 07-05-2017, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,108 posts, read 57,474,792 times
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Great video by Joe C regarding the tropics. He echoed my thoughts that you can't get systems to affect the Eastern U.S with these digging troughs coming in often.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olw5mdjlvNM
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