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Old 07-17-2017, 06:44 AM
 
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8amEST 17 July 2017:
Atlantic: 2 systems: 1 has 50% chance currently, but models keep it low in the Caribbean towards South America or Central America coast as a weaker system (blob of showers or Tropical Depression/Storm), currently labeled as 95L. The other has 30% chance of development and is forecast to start curving up and out where dry Saharan air may be waiting to finish it off.




East Pacific:
We had Eugene earlier this month and now Fernanda is on its way out to sea, followed by 3 more developing storms.
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Old 07-17-2017, 02:37 PM
 
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And Tropical Storm Don is born as of 5pmEST 17 July 2017 in the Atlantic approaching the Leeward Islands. Was 95L.
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Old 07-18-2017, 12:16 PM
 
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The storm following Don in the Atlantic, located about halfway between Africa and the Caribbean, is still only 30% chance of development and will likely enter unfavorable conditions for development in 2 days or so. Not expected to become a threat.

Models hinting early - mid August could become quite busy in the Atlantic so stay tuned!
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Old 07-31-2017, 03:34 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Something coming out of the Gulf this week and heading Northeast


https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/891954794918752261
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Old 07-31-2017, 03:59 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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2 days ago a cold front dropped all the way from Canada to Gulf states. It stalled just off the Gulf coast so guess what..... Low pressure formed along this front..


https://twitter.com/BMonahanWSB/stat...60891171905536
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Old 07-31-2017, 04:00 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Radar loop


https://twitter.com/DarrenSweeney/st...60567182872577
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Old 07-31-2017, 04:57 AM
 
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And...models consistently pointing to increased tropical development as we get into the 2nd week of August and forcing in place to move any systems across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean so will need to watch!

TD6 imagery: TD6 imagery
(Also if you see mandatory evacuations for parts of the OuterBanks of NC thats due to cut power cables, not the storm)
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Old 07-31-2017, 06:17 AM
 
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TD6 literally popped up overnight. I went to bed with the usual SWFL weather forecast of rain/thunderstorms every day and woke up to see a tropical depression on the radar.

edit: and now it's Tropical Storm Emily

Last edited by jean_ji; 07-31-2017 at 06:31 AM..
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Old 07-31-2017, 06:33 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jean_ji View Post
TD6 literally popped up overnight. I went to bed with the usual SWFL weather forecast of rain/thunderstorms every day and woke up to see a tropical depression on the radar.

edit: and now it's Tropical Storm Emily
Yep! Was declared TD6 around sunrise and Emily shortly while ago! Really did pop up, NHC even had only a 20% chance of development the other day. Warm Gulf of Mexico waters (fertilizer for tropical systems) needs to be watched as we get further into hurricane season.
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Old 08-01-2017, 06:52 PM
 
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8pmEST 1 August 2017:
Atlantic:
-Former TS Emily continues to move away from the SE US coastline.
-Disorganized showers in central Atlantic at 20% chance of development, but shear may hinder any development even into the weekend.
-A non-tropical low pressure system has developed in the Gulf of Mexico near where Emily formed but is not expected to develop (10% chance) at this time with high shear and dry air in the region. Heading towards the Big Bend area of FL.

Models continue to hint at a busier August in store. I'm not too familar with the topic but takeaway is a Kelvin Wave moving across the Atlantic may help increase / open up the door for increased tropical development and increased threat to the US/Caribbean.

East Pacific:
-Another system south of Mexico has 50% chance of developing this week, likely riding parallel to but off the coast.

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