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Old 08-23-2017, 12:34 PM
 
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looks like Galveston's gonna get clobbered again.
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Old 08-23-2017, 02:52 PM
 
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Houston news -- One station said Friday night is landfall. He predicts Houston will get heavy rain, wind, and will be on the dirty side of the storm. No evacuations mentioned yet.


https://www.click2houston.com/weathe...ch-toward-gulf
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Old 08-23-2017, 04:26 PM
 
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So much for clarity in the models today...likely in part due to a near stationary storm and weak stirring currents coming up.

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Old 08-23-2017, 05:17 PM
 
Location: Deep 13
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Yeesh!

Bad enough to get a storm like that, but it looks like all models have it doing a loop-de-loop over the coast before moving out.
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Old 08-23-2017, 05:21 PM
 
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If anyone wants a more in depth break down on what the storm is currently doing and why the future path is so uncertain as of this evening then I recommend checking out TropicalTidbits evening update. Always does a great job explaining with pictures, and drawing on the screen to show you whats going on, don't have to be (too) into weather things to follow (most of model/intensity maps I post are from his site):

https://youtu.be/hz8wu_gWbUc
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Old 08-23-2017, 06:10 PM
 
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7pmCDT/8pmEST NHC advisory says winds still 35mph, moving NW 2mph, pressure 1003mb. Hurricane Hunter aircraft monitoring storm.

Pressure dropped a little so it's trying to strengthen but slowly. Somewhere in east Texas likely to receive heavy scattered rainfall / flooding in the coming days but given uncertainty in storm track, that still remains to be seen where. Basically question is after it reaches land does it head more towards TX/Mexico region or more towards Houston/Louisiana.

With Watches/Warnings now posted official updates are released from US National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 1,4,7,&10am/pmCDT (2,5,8,&11am/pmEST) here: NHC

Close-up Satellite photos here: Harvey Sat images

If you're interested in taking the lull in storm info to learn about the NHC's newer storm surge modeling tool/map then there's a free little training info corse here (may be more for the fans of tropical systems): https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_...1#.WZ4dTUEpCEc

It also has other free weather classes including how to be a storm spotter etc with certificates for taking things: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_detail.php

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-23-2017 at 06:40 PM..
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Old 08-23-2017, 07:47 PM
 
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From the latest update on the Houston news . . . . The storm will move very slow once it makes landfall. They're worried about it being another Allison.
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Old 08-23-2017, 08:31 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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Both the GFS and Euro look scary for the Houston-Galveston area.

The Euro shows more for my area than the GFS.

https://twitter.com/robperillo/statu...42568202723329
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Old 08-23-2017, 10:05 PM
 
Location: San Antonio
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That might have been the case but now it is stalling west of CC. These models need to get it together.
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Old 08-24-2017, 04:17 AM
 
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Here we go...***storm has become MUCH more symmetrical (can now strengthen), models in much more agreement on path towards Texas (NO agreement on where/when it goes after though), most models go with a Hurricane at landfall now***

4amCDT/5amEST 24 August 2017:
Winds 45mph, moving North 10mph, pressure 995mb. Tropical Storm again.

NHC has posted a special local National Weather Service Office page so you can find more specifics on your area:
Local Products

Hurricane Hunter aircraft monitoring storm near constantly from here until landfall (follow along in near real-time here: TropicalTidbits recon )

Hurricane Warning (means Hurricane winds are possible somewhere in the warning area in 36hours or less) from Port Mansfield south to Matagorda.

Tropical Storm Warning (means Tropical Storm conditions possible somewhere in the warning area in 36hours or less) from North of Matagorda to High Island, and South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande (models say these TS winds could arrive sometime Friday).

Storm Surge Warning (life threatening inundation from water moving inland from the coast in 36hours or less) from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.

Storm Surge Watch (Possible life threatening inundation from water moving inland from the coast) from South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, North of San Luis Pass to High Island.

Storm surge is basically like a really High tide with waves on top, it's not a tsunami. it rises slowly in the hours before landfall cutting off escape routes early, and QUICKLY rises to it's highest point at time of landfall as the center/eyewall crosses land at the center location and to the north of the storm (on shore winds that side). Storm surge can follow stream, rivers, and anything that feeds into the coastal waters potentially flooding several miles inland depending on the storm size/geography of the land.

These Watches,Warnings may be narrowed down more as we get clearer picture over the next day or two.

Looking at a MUCH better organized storm this morning with convection(Storms) firing up more around the center:




Models much more in agreement on landfall in Texas (***subject to shifting still***)...AFTER reaching the coast is still WAY up in the air on where (and when) it'll go:


(Map for ref/clarity what's where):


Euro/GFS rain potential rain total maps...Euro sends more inland now as well.


Intensity models keep creeping higher, don't like that trend and I hope a few of the model runs not shown in this chart are outlyers (a few rapidly intensify into a major storm):

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-24-2017 at 04:40 AM..
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