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Old 08-24-2017, 06:22 AM
 
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***Recon finding pressure dropping quickly = storm quickly intensifying ahead of schedule, likely hurricane shortly today, increases risk for major hurricane by tomorrow possibly (does not alter heavy rain threat, adds surge and wind threat the stronger it gets)**

7aCDT/8aEST: Winds 60mph, moving NNW 10mph, pressure 986mb.
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Old 08-24-2017, 06:44 AM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
***Recon finding pressure dropping quickly = storm quickly intensifying ahead of schedule, likely hurricane shortly today, increases risk for major hurricane by tomorrow possibly (does not alter heavy rain threat, adds surge and wind threat the stronger it gets)**

7aCDT/8aEST: Winds 60mph, moving NNW 10mph, pressure 986mb.
If Harvey becomes a stronger hurricane, would it be able to push back against the high pressure more and move forward instead of stalling out?
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Old 08-24-2017, 06:56 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ral31 View Post
If Harvey becomes a stronger hurricane, would it be able to push back against the high pressure more and move forward instead of stalling out?
I would say...not too noticeably. Hurricanes can become powerful but are mainly at the mercy of other systems for where they go (I like to think of a spinning toy top that you blow on just a little on it and send it flying off somewhere). Harvey is between two High Pressures (Blue H on weather maps). They'll be fighting for control, if equal strengths it stalls more, if one stronger it'll head more West or if other stronger heads more NE.
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Old 08-24-2017, 07:00 AM
 
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Developing an eye this morning (better structure = strengthening):
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Old 08-24-2017, 07:38 AM
 
Location: Dallas, Texas (Collin County)
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Good luck you pals down there in southern TX, looks like a serious threat as Harvey continue to strenghten! CDO looks healthy and RI may be in progress.
Latest scans support also possible eye wall formation under way!
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Old 08-24-2017, 08:33 AM
 
Location: Orcutt, CA (Santa Maria Valley)
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Harvey is going to be like TS Allison, but on steroids!
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Old 08-24-2017, 09:14 AM
 
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10aCDT/11aEST advisory: Winds 65mph, moving NNW 10mph, pressure 982mb.

***NHC now says Cat3 hurricane likely by landfall***

Landfall timing expected very late Friday into early morning hours Saturday at night.

Tropical Storm winds expected to arrive Friday. Preparations for storm should be completed TODAY or early Friday at the latest. If told to evacuate by local officials please do so.

(By the way...its been 4,322 days since the last Cat3 hurricane made landfall in the US)

Hazards from NHC on this evolving storm:
"HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 10 ft
Sargent to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office."

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-24-2017 at 09:27 AM..
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Old 08-24-2017, 09:38 AM
 
Location: San Antonio
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Looking like a bad situation might be unfolding.

Massive flooding and now wind damage and storm surge.
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Old 08-24-2017, 11:02 AM
 
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12pCDT/1pEST SPECIAL early update from NHC: continued strengthening, now a Hurricane, winds 80mph (ground level estimate), moving NNW 10mph, pressure 981mb.

Edit: recon data showing winds nearing 100mph at flight level (winds are higher the further up you go, eventually translating to ground level over time with the aid of storms that can bring those winds to the surface)

Mandatory evacuation orders starting to go out. If told to evacuate please do so, rising waters and storm conditons may/will start to cut off evacuation routes tomorrow before the storm center reaches the coast.

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-24-2017 at 11:11 AM..
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Old 08-24-2017, 11:54 AM
 
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1pCDT/2pEST: Winds 85mph, moving NNW 10mph, pressure 979mb.

Nothing is hindering intensification, likely will be a Cat3 by Friday, may try to make a run at a Cat4. From the NHC: "Harvey rapidly intensifying. Preparations along the middle TX coast should be rushed to completion today."

Hurricane force winds extend 25miles from storm center, Tropical Storm force 90miles.

NHC: "It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge."

"2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12 feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov"
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