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Old 08-17-2017, 02:56 PM
 
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5pmEST 17 August 2017: "91L" became "PTC9" or 09L (potential tropical cyclone 9), now organized enough to be classified as Tropical Storm Harvey.

Winds 40mph, moving West at a pretty good clip of 18mph, pressure 1004mb. Some Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings up for the islands.

Official storm stats are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) at or before 2,5,8,11 am/pmEST here: NHC

Satellite imagery/loops taken every 30 minutes (available 25 minutes after taken) here: Sat images

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Old 08-18-2017, 04:32 AM
 
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5amEST 18 August 2017:
Winds 40mph, moving W 18mph, pressure 1004mb. Moving through Winward Islands now, entering the Caribbean.

Intensity:
Light wind shear across Harvey should keep development slow but steady next few days (shear is upper level winds that blow tops of building clouds/thunderstorms off, keeping them from building higher/stronger). Likely a stronger Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane near Central America/ Yucatán Peninsula.

Track:
Models in fairly tight agreement on track, similar to Franklin's path, so currently threatens Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, & Mexico. An upper level Low pressure and a High pressure ridge keeping it moving generally Westward. The big question is are these stirring factors still there around the time Harvey nears Yucatán. Questions remain on where it goes afterwards.
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Old 08-18-2017, 06:53 AM
 
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8amEST 18 Aug 2017: Winds 40mph, moving W 18mph, pressure slightly up to 1005mb which tells us it's holding steady strength wise for now.

View from Harvey taken by Hurricane Hunter aircraft yesterday:



Morning models...you can see the uncertainty starting around Yucatán Peninsula:
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Old 08-19-2017, 09:26 AM
 
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11amEST 19 August 2017:
Winds 40mph, moving W 22mph, pressure 1007mb.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft found stronger winds yesterday but kept the wind speed down as they were not down at ground level yet. And today the storm does not look as healthy and the pressure rising slightly tells us this as well. Shear still affecting the storm as well as dryer air now.

Questions still remain if it makes it into the Western Gulf of Mexico as water temps are VVEERRRYYY warm which means rapid development is still an open possibility at this time but this far out we can't say past that. May not even survive the trip over. Too early to say.






Last edited by Psychoma; 08-19-2017 at 09:46 AM..
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Old 08-19-2017, 08:09 PM
 
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Harvey looks to have fallen apart today...maybe just a tropical wave again.
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Old 08-19-2017, 08:36 PM
 
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11pmEST 19 August 2017:
Yep, became an open Tropical Wave. No more advisories will be issued by the NHC unless it reforms.
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Old 08-20-2017, 10:20 AM
 
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Harvey may be back according to how satellite presentation appears here mid day Sunday.
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Old 08-20-2017, 02:54 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
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Conditions are favorable for storm development... why are they collapsing?
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Old 08-20-2017, 05:06 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
Conditions are favorable for storm development... why are they collapsing?
I want to say overall just too much shear and pockets of dry air mainly. Water is plenty warm to support long tracked intense hurricanes off the US East coast and GOM.
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Old 08-20-2017, 07:53 PM
 
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Sunday evening: Looks like a decent amount of models rapidly intensify Harvey back from the dead in the Western Gulf of Mexico while the others keep it flat lined...so will have to keep an eye on the current swirly clouds/showers that used to be Harvey. If shear and dry air back off that's certainly possible given how warm waters are (fuel for hurricanes and yes every degree matters). The shape of the coast in the Bay of Campeche (sw corner of the GOM) sort of like a bowl can sometimes also help get a storm going as winds circle around that bowl.



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