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Appreciate the explanation. Just trying to make heads/tails of it all since I'm in FL. Thanks.
Ya I'm sure it's frustrating with the wait and uncertainty until near last minute. More data points being collected now that the players that turn Irma are over land so hopefully a clearer picture begins to emerge. With new GOES16/East satellite and new CYGNSS 8 micro satellites for hurricane observations all launched in late 2016 hopefully we're getting closer to better science with these storms but a ways to go still.
Seeing supposed initial pics from St Martin this AM showing cement walls/buildings stand up pretty good compared to our (US) love of stick built homes/buildings in those winds.
Models seem to agree it'll curve east of FL yet South FL is more centered within the cone of uncertainty now. Kind of odd. Also, weather forecasts look a lot worse, NWS is predicting hurricane conditions for both Saturday and Sunday here, and TWC has increased the forecast from 60-80 mph winds to 100-115 mph for Sunday.
Models seem to agree it'll curve east of FL yet South FL is more centered within the cone of uncertainty now. Kind of odd. Also, weather forecasts look a lot worse, NWS is predicting hurricane conditions for both Saturday and Sunday here, and TWC has increased the forecast from 60-80 mph winds to 100-115 mph for Sunday.
I'm feeling a matthew 2.0 kinda situation here. In other words a whole lot of nothing, I won't be leaving the Key.
I'm feeling a matthew 2.0 kinda situation here. In other words a whole lot of nothing, I won't be leaving the Key.
I'm kind of feeling that too, but who knows. Part of me feels this is the real deal. This could either be Matthew 2.0 it could also be Wilma 2.0 as well (something this storm really reminded me of). I'm getting a worse feeling from this one than Matthew, last year I had a feeling Matthew was a fizzer the whole time, I haven't had that feeling with this one.
I'm kind of feeling that too, but who knows. Part of me feels this is the real deal. This could either be Matthew 2.0 it could also be Wilma 2.0 as well (something this storm really reminded me of). I'm getting a worse feeling from this one than Matthew, last year I had a feeling Matthew was a fizzer the whole time, I haven't had that feeling with this one.
Just waiting on the 11 AM update.
Most models are in agreement regarding the miss to the east. I'm not really worried at all right now...I'm just happy school is already canceled for Thursday and Friday lol.
Most models are in agreement regarding the miss to the east. I'm not really worried at all right now...I'm just happy school is already canceled for Thursday and Friday lol.
I wouldn't take them for granted so much. Just 24 hrs ago models had it going into the Gulf or the west of us lol. I'm not saying the models are wrong, but we can't just take them for 100% certainty. One thing I will say is models have been pretty consistent on it not going straight over us, they've either been west or east of us.
I wouldn't take them for granted so much. Just 24 hrs ago models had it going into the Gulf or the west of us lol. I'm not saying the models are wrong, but we can't just take them for 100% certainty. One thing I will say is models have been pretty consistent on it not going straight over us, they've either been west or east of us.
You are right about that lol. Even last night a lot of the models had it going west of us. My guess is that the trough diving into the eastern US is moving slower than the models thought it would. The only thing that could really scare me would be if they started predicting a 10ft+ storm surge on Key Biscayne, otherwise I'll be fine...My house made it through Andrew fine and recently it seems that when a storm has "140 mph" sustained winds surface winds end up not being much over 100 mph.
Models seem to agree it'll curve east of FL yet South FL is more centered within the cone of uncertainty now. Kind of odd. Also, weather forecasts look a lot worse, NWS is predicting hurricane conditions for both Saturday and Sunday here, and TWC has increased the forecast from 60-80 mph winds to 100-115 mph for Sunday.
have you gotten winds that strong from previous storms? What was it like?
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