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Old 09-07-2017, 08:06 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,778,579 times
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MIAMI - Residents in parts of the Miami metro area are under mandatory orders to leave their homes Thursday morning as Hurricane Irma barrels toward the region with potentially catastrophic winds.

During several media appearances Wednesday, Florida Gov. Rick Scott strongly urged people to evacuate if asked to do so by local officials. The governor waived tolls on all Florida highways and told people if they were thinking about leaving to "get out now."

source: https://www.clickondetroit.com/live/...briefings-9717
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Old 09-07-2017, 08:19 AM
 
Location: Upstate SC
792 posts, read 491,978 times
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Just happened to have the page open, hit refresh and all the models moved slightly back to the west.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/im...plots/storm_11
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Old 09-07-2017, 08:29 AM
 
Location: Charleston, SC
455 posts, read 663,458 times
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Thank you Mr Bruce. Getting on that right now. Great options.
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Old 09-07-2017, 08:35 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,316 posts, read 74,627,339 times
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watch this aerial video from this Caribbean Island. The hotel and structures are still there even with 130mph+ winds and rain and water surge but looks like windows are blown out and some parts of building ripped off. Palms too.

Im sure they built to withstand hurricanes but not Cat 4-5?

Also.. this shows you can ride it out in a sturdy structure if you dont get flooded but... don't expect to wake up next day and go to a Dunkin donuts or get gas anywhere. You'll be isolated for who knows how long.

You dont have to evacuate far from the center (70 miles is enough) but question is where exactly will that center be!

https://twitter.com/matthewkirkwood/...82908027318276

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Old 09-07-2017, 08:36 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,778,579 times
Reputation: 1932
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bruce View Post
Just happened to have the page open, hit refresh and all the models moved slightly back to the west.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/im...plots/storm_11
Oh really!

Could it be Fujiwhara?

Irma and Katia are about 1000 miles apart well within the Fujiwhara Effect limit.

I wonder if these model makers even program for Fujiwhara?


PS Did you notice Forecast 7?

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.

Anyone see the problem?

Katia is not moving South or West.

In fact Katia is not moving at all.

Katia is still building with projections that it will reach winds of 90 knots.


How odd? Didn't the NHC claim Katia would head West. I am expecting it to go East.
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Old 09-07-2017, 08:37 AM
 
7,252 posts, read 4,570,818 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice View Post
With the current track can anyone tell me what the predicted impact would be for Sarasota, FL?

Winds and storm surge? Rain? Would it be like a cat 3 or cat 2?

I really haven't seen any info on what the outlying areas will experience 50-100-150- miles out from the eye, especially since right now it is traveling over small islands.
Storm Surge:
Overall, the main/big Storm surge will be right around the eye/center(eyewall) of the storm and points a few miles north/northeast of that and slowly getting smaller the further you are from the storm center. So if the storm went up E coast of FL then Sarasota would only have some fairly minor surge potential, and that would just be from the continued multi day wind pushing water on shore some but not nearly like the eye would. Winds in a hurricane in Northern Hemisphere rotate counter clockwise around the center so first winds in Sarasota as storm nears S tip of FL would be pushing water more towards the Gulf of Mexico or to the SW and as the storm goes up the E coast of FL (assuming it does that track) then your winds would shift in relation to the center so as center passes to your east winds would be more likely to push water in a more North to South direction potentially casuing trouble in Southern areas of Sarasota Bay, and as storm heads north winds would push water more East direction. So minor surge just from continued good breezes minimum may cause some headaches depending on elevation. The closer the storm center gets the worse the potential as winds are strongest nesr the eye and less as you go out from that point.

A Worst case for Sarasota surge wise would be if the storm cut between S FL tip and Cuba and then center came up to Sarasota as that would be worst side of storm for surge.

Wind:
The "good" news in a well built / healthy Cat4/5 like Irma is that those crazy wind speeds are only in the eyewall that surrounds the center/eye and become much less as ou head out from the center. As a strong hurricane weakens with land interaction/landfall those winds come down in speed but also start to spread out by several miles. Currently, Irma has Hurricane force winds (74mph or greater) extending 50 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force (anything from 34-73mph being stronger the closer you are to the center) extend 185miles from the center. So how ever far you are from the center determines your winds, which will typically be found in rain bands where the storms are able to bring those winds down to the surface more easily.
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Old 09-07-2017, 08:41 AM
 
21,382 posts, read 7,860,012 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Storm Surge:
Overall, the main/big Storm surge will be right around the eye/center(eyewall) of the storm and points a few miles north/northeast of that and slowly getting smaller the further you are from the storm center. So if the storm went up E coast of FL then Sarasota would only have some fairly minor surge potential, and that would just be from the continued multi day wind pushing water on shore some but not nearly like the eye would. Winds in a hurricane in Northern Hemisphere rotate counter clockwise around the center so first winds in Sarasota as storm nears S tip of FL would be pushing water more towards the Gulf of Mexico or to the SW and as the storm goes up the E coast of FL (assuming it does that track) then your winds would shift in relation to the center so as center passes to your east winds would be more likely to push water in a more North to South direction potentially casuing trouble in Southern areas of Sarasota Bay, and as storm heads north winds would push water more East direction. So minor surge just from continued good breezes minimum may cause some headaches depending on elevation. The closer the storm center gets the worse the potential as winds are strongest nesr the eye and less as you go out from that point.

A Worst case for Sarasota surge wise would be if the storm cut between S FL tip and Cuba and then center came up to Sarasota as that would be worst side of storm for surge.

Wind:
The "good" news in a well built / healthy Cat4/5 like Irma is that those crazy wind speeds are only in the eyewall that surrounds the center/eye and become much less as ou head out from the center. As a strong hurricane weakens with land interaction/landfall those winds come down in speed but also start to spread out by several miles. Currently, Irma has Hurricane force winds (74mph or greater) extending 50 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force (anything from 34-73mph being stronger the closer you are to the center) extend 185miles from the center. So how ever far you are from the center determines your winds, which will typically be found in rain bands where the storms are able to bring those winds down to the surface more easily.
thanks, helpful.
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Old 09-07-2017, 08:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,316 posts, read 74,627,339 times
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Want this in English? Don't be out over the waters.

Quote:

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC THU SEP 07 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU SEP 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI SEP 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT SEP 09.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...

HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 20.0N 68.3W 921 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 07
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT
GUSTS 190 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM NE
QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 540 NM NE
QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 390 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 54 FT
. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM NE
QUADRANT...300 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT AND 360 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 17N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 74W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.


.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 21.7N 73.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT GUSTS 175 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
450 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW QUADRANT AND
500 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 47 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM
NE QUADRANT...300 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT AND 270 NM
NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA N OF 19N BETWEEN 62W AND 80W...EXCEPT SW OF BAHAMAS...WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 22.8N 77.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT GUSTS 165 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
450 NM NE QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...75 NM SW QUADRANT AND
600 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 38 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM
NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT AND 300 NM
NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. N OF 29N W OF A
LINE FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 20N W OF 67W...EXCEPT FROM 23N TO 27N
W OF 78W...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 24.5N 80.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 28.5N 80.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA INLAND NEAR 33.0N 81.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
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Old 09-07-2017, 08:57 AM
 
385 posts, read 345,685 times
Reputation: 405
[quote=SkyNSea55;49444542]Here in Charleston. Feel we must leave. But where and when to go? North or West and how far? The cone is so long and wide. Help from experienced storm watchers much appreciated. We live 4 miles from Isle of Palms Beach on the mainland. Hoping for the best but planning for the worst.[/QUOT
I would say up I95 to 40 to Raleigh where we are. From models storm will be west of here toward Charlotte and Ashville. East of here starts to be pretty low country.
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Old 09-07-2017, 09:18 AM
 
Location: Not where I want to be
24,509 posts, read 24,102,208 times
Reputation: 24270
Having to stay put here in North Port, SW Fl. We have 3 shelters within 10 minutes and they are pet friendly but will not take Exotic Pets. Out of 5 animals, the cat is the only non-exotic. Hopefully we will be alright. Our house is the highest on the street and the water from Charley didn't get up to the house. The canal in back was a bit higher but still didn't come in.

Stay safe everyone. Pray for the best!
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