Atlantic - Irma forms August 30, 2017 (storms, wear, month, South)

[pbmaise]

Originally Posted by AnotherTouchOfWhimsy

I'm also confused and feeling a bit panicked. Even if we decided to evacuate from Sarasota county, I wouldn't even know where to go. We're 48 hours away from... something, but what?

I don't know what highways are like. Travel at 2-4 am.

It is likely too late to get out.

If staying.

Look around and make a plan. Fill every available water container including bathtub. Wash trash cans. Fill. add bleach small amount into water. Some water is just for washing.

Do you know anyone with stronger house. Think of the story of the three pigs. Which one of your friends was crazy man who built two story house from steel beams.

Newer multistory condos are likely fine. Stairwells strongest part.

[Psychoma]

Official Irma storm surge maps have been updated with the 5pm 7 September 2017 NHC (National Hurricane Center) advisory (they come out 1-1.5hours after NHC main advisories(which is 5&11am/pmEST), can't recall off top of my head if they update surge maps more often as we get closer to impact). It's found right on NHC's website right beside Irma info below the overall map right on their home page.

Copying and pasting from earlier:
**Note: These maps WILL change each update**This WILL change based on when Irma turns North and that is the main unknown still** **The surge map WILL be EXTENDED NORTHWARD in time as more surge watches are issued**

It includes variables such as hitting at high or low tide (this changes if storm movement speed changes!), chsnges with predicted arrival Storm strength, land shape and connecting water ways such as bays, sounds, and water ways feeding into them susceptible to surge. The map represents a plan for this level scenario because it is possible but hope for less.

Irma Official NHC Interactive Surge map

Edit: adding: the main highest storm surge comes right with the eye/center/eye-wall of a hurricane AND points to the North/NorthEast slowly getting lower as you head away from the storm over several miles. Onshore constant wind for several days can also create minor surge flooding of a few feet even well away from the center.

Overall Screen shot of Southern FL area for this update ( As I said these WILL change about 1-1.5hrs after each NHC storm update):

[pbmaise]

Originally Posted by newtovenice

If all the mini models are/were tracking west then why are the models tracking east?

I seriously can't make heads or tails of any of this.

It seems like all the tracking is just a crap shoot.

Good question.

I think largely these models have helped promote both a false sense of security when they show a track that people hope to see.

They also promote panic and insecurity because they show tiny thin lines instead of broad sweeps with margins of error.

Many in Miami Ft Lauderdale stayed in place when models came out showing Irma may go off shore.

People in Sarasota and Tampa St Pete elected to stay in homes they know are substandard simply because most models showed East Coast.

I agree with how NHC removed the line.

I disagree how NHC shows a pinpoint forecasted position because people can still see a line by connecting the dots themselves.

NHC should change to an arc.

That arc should have a middle where hurricane is most likely to go. And sweep across an area where there is a 5% chance.

[newtovenice]

Are there any news stories about Puerto Rico after Irma that demonstrate what the hurricane did to the island?

I google "puerto rico hurricane irma" and I get one or two fluff pieces (one was an interview with a woman with breathing equipment complaining how when she calls 911 no one shows up) and a bunch of stories of "Puerto Rico Bracing for Hurricane." I also can't find any real info re Barbuda other than 95% of buildings damaged, 30% of buildings destroyed, island completely under water and ... 8 dead? That doesn't make sense to me. All that destruction, a cat 5 hurricane on a tiny island, underwater ... and only 8 dead?

Any links to news stories that people have found via Puerto Rico and Barbuda would be appreciated.

[AJ1013]

Originally Posted by muslim12

aj get the hell out man... please do... 150mph are not a joke... I cant imagine what will happen to Miami but Miami after this will never be the same.. even your high rises are about to be rekt...

I can't lol. There's nowhere for me to go outside of Miami.

Hopefully my house will be fine...I'm not staying in a friends house anymore, we got a hotel near the Airport. the

[Cambium]

Last 4 days of Irma's Eye


https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/statu...96899760312321

[Warszawa]

Hopefully the hurricane stays tf away from Miami, imagine what a disaster it would be if struck there. Hopefully it will strike somewhere like the Everglades where the damage will be limited

[pbmaise]

Originally Posted by muslim12

aj get the hell out man... please do... 150mph are not a joke... I cant imagine what will happen to Miami but Miami after this will never be the same.. even your high rises are about to be rekt...

High rises are built very well. My greater concern are those living in single story homes near canals which can transport huge volumes of seawater inland quickly. If I was living in say Ft Lauderdale, I would be moving everything into the attic, including some foods water and an ax.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

I am more interested at this point that Katia has moved East as I predicted.

Despite the NHC forecast, Katia did the opposite.

Maybe I got lucky. Maybe it is the Fujiwhara Effect.

Models shifting Irma to the West were not unexpected in my book. I have been looking farther away for steering influences.

This morning I need to answer how Africa's current temperature is influencing winds. Overnight winds shifted here in the Philippines. It is a monsoon change that occurs every Fall. It is early.

What are you on about?? ...lol Katia has NO effect on Irma...none

[Cambium]

View of Irma from up above on the ISS Space Station.


https://twitter.com/SergeyISS/status...051396/photo/1