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GFS: Skims northern Cuba, hits South Florida as a sub 900mb (Cat 5) Sunday 8am, rides up the entire state and into Georgia as a very strong storm still probably Cat 1
Canadian: Hits Miami as a 970mb (Cat 1-2) Sunday 2am, quickly exits into Atlantic then hits South Carolina
Euro: Hits the Florida keys then SouthWest tip of Florida as a 943mb low (Cat 3) Sunday 2pm , rides up the state and into Georgia
Nam: Misses Florida barely, hits South Carolina as a sub 970mb low (Cat 1-2) Monday 11am.
5aEST 8 September 2017: At 5am center of storm was 495 miles SE of Miami, FL. Don't forget to consult interactive storm surge map here, updates about 1-1.5hrs after each main official update : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...ation#contents
Just to have on file posting this discussion here from Meteo Beven.
50 Mile wide eye or is that just the outer wall. Same difference? The clear eye probably 40 miles?
Quote:
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
Microwave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Irma is currently undergoing an
eyewall replacement cycle. A recent GMI overpass showed an 50 nmi wide outer eyewall, with the inner eyewall weakening. The
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported peak 700-mb winds of 147 kt in
the outer eyewall near 0500 UTC, and maximum SFMR winds were in the
125-130 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
reduced to 135 kt.
Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear
environment for the next 36-48 h. The intensity guidance shows a
slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida.
After landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction and increased shear, although Irma's large wind field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large area.
There are two caveats to the intensity forecast. First, some
additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement,
followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes. Second, the
ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the
coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast.
If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along
the later parts of the track.
The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/14. Irma should maintain this general trajectory for the next 24-36 h as it moves along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge.After that
time, the guidance is in good agreement that the ridge should break
and allow Irma to turn north-northwestward to northward. There
remains some spread between the models on when the turn will occur,
with the GFS/Canadian being on the eastern side of the guidance and
the UKMET/NAVGEM on the left side. The ECMWF, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HFIP Corrected consensus are in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and the new track forecast is in best
agreement with those models. Overall, the new forecast track is
similar to the previous forecast, with minor westward adjustments
at 36 and 48 h.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will
continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through
Saturday. Heavy rainfall is still possible across portions of
Hispaniola through today. Hurricane conditions will also spread
over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the
adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.
2. Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Saturday night.
Irma is likely to make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous
major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind
impacts to much of the state. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
southern Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida
Bay, while Hurricane Watches have been issued northward into central
Florida.
3. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of
life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from
the coastline, during the next 36 hours. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and
the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm
Surge Watch has been issued north of the Storm Surge Warning area
for portions of the central Florida coast.
4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify
the magnitude and location of these impacts.
Just to have on file posting this discussion here from Meteo Beven.
50 Mile wide eye or is that just the outer wall. Same difference? The clear eye probably 40 miles?
Levi's Tropical Tidbits site shows the inner eyewall diameter is 30miles so clear eye should be around 20miles diameter. This 50mile diameter 2nd eyewall normally contracts in and replaces the center eye wall (eyewall replacement cycle) but this storm likes 2 as long as it can apparently, but that kind of hurts the storm too I beleive...trying to choke off the inner one to take its place, and discussion you posted says inner is giving in, so should replace the inner eye wall and shrink down sometime today I imagine (so should end up around 30+ miles diamter eye Wall again in the end).
Storm surge is rising water moving inland from the shoreline, pushed onshore by the force of the wind. This storm surge watch/warning graphic identifies locations most at risk for life-threatening inundation from storm surge, displaying areas that qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning by the National Weather Service. Due to forecast uncertainty, the actual areas that experience life-threatening inundation may differ from the areas shown on this map. All persons, regardless of whether or not they are in the highlighted areas shown by the graphic, should promptly follow evacuation orders and other instructions from local emergency management officials.
Latest update posted showed sustained winds 135 KT which is high side of a Four.
Don't rejoice too much. A Four will still do severe damage and it was expected to go down to a four.
Here is what a four is capable of:
(This is very misleading since it mentions nothing about surge damage and wave damage.)
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Note: I don't think many are expecting it to go back to a Five. If it does occur, likely it would occur Saturday night.
Currently no High Surf Advisory for Florida, however, there is one for Texas owing to Katia. Expect a high surfer advisory soon. It will be posted here:
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