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Old 09-08-2017, 12:32 PM
 
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Is Venice/Sarasota/port charlotte gonna get hammered?
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Old 09-08-2017, 12:40 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotkarl View Post
Is Venice/Sarasota/port charlotte gonna get hammered?
It looks that way. The latest track has the eye passing just east of Sarasota County. My immediate family in Venice are under a mandatory evacuation, and they're pretty well inland.
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Old 09-08-2017, 12:44 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,298 posts, read 74,572,722 times
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Someone asked about Tornadoes? Now think about who's on the right side of the center..


Quote:
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...SUMMARY...
A few brief tornadoes are possible across much of southern Florida
Saturday as Hurricane Irma impacts the region.


...Synopsis...
Hurricane Irma is forecast to turn more northward late Saturday into
Sunday, in between an upper ridge over the southern Rockies and
Plains, and a departing upper trough over the Northeast. Ample
moisture and increasing wind fields may support isolated tornadoes
over parts southern and eastern Florida late in the period.

...Florida...
A very moist/tropical air mass will remain in place ahead of
Hurricane Irma with dewpoints in the upper 70s. Shear profiles and
thus tornado threat will increase through the period, in association
with the outer bands. Based on the official forecast track, the
primary threat area would appear to be across eastern through
southern parts of the peninsula, late Saturday into the overnight
period.

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Old 09-08-2017, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,298 posts, read 74,572,722 times
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I'm not a Pro so I'll leave the analysis to them but if that Canadian high was stronger and south more Irma wouldn't be hitting Florida. "almost" as simple as that.


Surface Map





This is the steering winds... I can see why models were struggling. It could of easily went OTS!! In the end sometimes the Hurricane wants to go where it wants to go.


If that Atlantic ridge was simply 100 miles East more, no question in my mind this thing would of just curved Out To Sea! It wouldn't of stayed so far south in Latitude probably.


But at this point, it found a path it wants and it wants Florida.


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Old 09-08-2017, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Last post for now...


2pm NHC Update:: She slowed down a bit in forward speed. Moving W at 14mph now. Winds are up 155mph. Strengthening a bit.


Quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...EYE OF HURRICANE IRMA MONITORED BY HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES AND
CUBAN RADARS...

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Sebastian Inlet to Ponce Inlet

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located by a reconnaissance plane and Cuban radars near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. Irma has been moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), but the hurricane should resume a
west-northwest motion later today. A turn toward the northwest is
expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma
should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central
Bahamas for the rest of today and Saturday, and be near the Florida
Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to
remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 925 mb (27.31 inches).




NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT

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Old 09-08-2017, 01:01 PM
 
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That's a LOT of water far inland *possible* with Irma depending on exactly where that center goes....(data represents the 11am update info). Interactive official NHC irma surge map here: HURRICANE IRMA







Irma about to tap into warmer waters (extra fuel):
Attachment 190013

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-11-2019 at 12:04 PM..
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Old 09-08-2017, 01:17 PM
 
37,315 posts, read 59,517,935 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ads94 View Post
Great... I have family (and my property) in Citrus County. Really wish this westward track didn't happen. Terrible for all of Florida.
The only thing to please ALL Florida and the other states was to have Irma steamroll out to sea...
That obviously isn't an option...
There is enough random violence that happens in a Cat1 hurricane, much less one of Irma's prowess, to make anyone unhappy...
Many of us also have family and property in areas that might be vulnerable because even if ALL the models agree there is no guarantee Irma's actions are informed/following those models...
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Old 09-08-2017, 01:20 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,298 posts, read 74,572,722 times
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Euro12z west a tad more more. Miami saved a bit.


Blues = 138mph+
Greens/Yellows = 120-135mph
Reds/Oranges = 110-120mph





Wind Gusts per Euro Sunday 2pm..







8pm Wind Gusts.


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Old 09-08-2017, 01:34 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,776,686 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by old_cold View Post
I almost have to laugh when we are now getting told to evacuate. Where the hell are we supposed to go if this thing goes right up the middle?
What would the trade off be to go to much higher ground, like the Ocala area , or even just farther away from the coast because that would be heading smack in the middle of the thing.
Largely, hurricane construction code only addresses wind. What good is a single story home that survives the wind only to become a death trap when ocean surge and waves bury it to the ceiling?

That is by far the question that most people fail to mention. They simply tell us a geographic location without telling a distance from the ocean, distance from canal, elevation of ground, and type of building.

People taking a direct hit from Irma will likely be far better off in the right kind of building at the right level than people 100 miles from the eye in a one story home built slab on grade near a canal.


One topic I don't see discussed much is the chances of survival within a car versus a house.

If you can get a car to high ground out of the flood area the odds winds would be strong enough to destroy the car are likely less than the odds of destroying a stick frame house.

In my book, if you are sitting in a one story home near sea level, and can get you and your car to higher ground it sounds like a good thing.

Further a car out in the open or surrounded by other cars is less likely to be damaged by flying debris.

Car windows are almost always tempered glass if hit by debris.

It is one reason I am a big fan of parking garages. Obviously not the basement but an upper story. There you would be high and dry and likely safe and sound even in a direct hit since parking garages are built pretty solid.

Notice I keep saying car and not panel truck with lots of windage. A heavy SUV parked head first into on coming winds should be fine too.

I see the trade-off with getting to higher ground even if it means sitting in your car a reasonable trade.

Of course there may be hundreds of people trapped in their cars on low lying roads who would have been better off on a step ladder in their flooded bathroom.
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Old 09-08-2017, 01:35 PM
 
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But I don't think the west coast is at all prepared for something like this? That is what I keep reading.
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