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Old 09-01-2017, 04:18 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,246 posts, read 56,684,464 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metalhead0043 View Post
Looks like the new Euro model is trending more in line with the GFS. It still has Irma impacting the Leeward Islands but then curving NW and up towards the US coast line instead of staying south and heading into the Gulf like previous runs. The big difference looks like the GFS has it further north by day 9. Keep in mind that this is not cause to panic. These forecasts are for 8-10 days out and can change wildly between now and then.
Yup! That's the biggest thing that stood out for me. It didn't even shift slowly towards that, it just jumped to the curve north which to me means it probably wont go into the Gulf.


Here's an animation of the latest Euro for everyone to see.

  • Watch Irma come across..
  • Take note of the front coming across the U.S right before the curve north. Timing, Timing, Timing is simply incredible.
  • Irma has a baby as well, see the other tropical system behind her?


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Old 09-01-2017, 04:44 AM
 
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Ya looks like shift back up some, and key moment may be when does it turn back WNW/NW after the small dip WSW/SW this weekend. PLENTY of time for changes.
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Old 09-01-2017, 07:07 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,246 posts, read 56,684,464 times
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Irma finally coming into Satellite view with my GREarth software. 9amEST temps and Satellite. NHC has it becoming a Cat 4 in couple days


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Old 09-01-2017, 08:42 AM
 
Location: Hartford County, CT
844 posts, read 505,611 times
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This storm has potential to be nuts. Will be watching this.
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Old 09-01-2017, 09:00 AM
 
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11aEST: Winds 110mph, moving WNW 13mph, pressure 972mb. Eyewall replacement cycle on-going, slight bit of shear in the region, and Irma riding on the edge of warm waters so slightly weaker today. Conditions look to improve over the weekend with some slight shear possible so likely slow but steady strengthening. No real change to track of storm...you're still more likely to know what NFL teams will be in the playoffs and Super Bowl then know exactly where Irma will be 7+ days from now. Will know more in the coming days.
(A reminder the "cone" path is the possible location of the center of storm in time):
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Old 09-01-2017, 09:11 AM
 
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Busted:
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Old 09-01-2017, 10:18 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,246 posts, read 56,684,464 times
Reputation: 12834
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Busted:
They probably saw it. Hope they sue that guy! Ridiculous what some people do to get more views, likes, and shares.


BTW - couple yrs ago this kid put out a 30" snowfall forecast (weatherboy) and the post got shared thousands of times and even police officers were replying to it. People were fearing for the worst and they had a map to go with that fear. The real forecast and model consensus and actual result were no where near that total.
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Old 09-01-2017, 12:18 PM
 
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Hurricane Hunter recon aircraft will begin regularly monitoring Irma starting Sunday, September 3.
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Old 09-01-2017, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,246 posts, read 56,684,464 times
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Sorry for delay. New update in couple hours so whats the point anyway? lol


Latest GFS12z hates Rhode Island evening of September 13th







Latest Canadian12z model last frame available September 11th mighty close to South Carolina.


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Old 09-01-2017, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,246 posts, read 56,684,464 times
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Ok, if you love weather or just interested in how or what; you need to watch Bernie's video. There is no way to explain it as good with a post. Needs a video so watch this.........




https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/903654141817380864






I'll do my best with 2 images...




He basically shows the timing of the next trough coming into Eastern U.S (with cool Canadian air again) is one of the key ingredients in what will dictate the path of Irma!


So here is the Upper Heights next week Wednesday evening September 6th...


You have a Blocking Ridge in the Atlantic, Irma WILL NOT turn north there, and you have this dip in the Jet Stream in Eastern U.S which is shifting East as time moves on. All this while Irma chugs westbound.


Now.......... If Irma slows down, it will allow the Jet Stream (trough) to exit the U.S in which Irma will then be able to hit the U.S. If Irma comes while the trough is still around then the trough will kick Irma away from land. The timing and speed of weather players is so fascinating when you think about it. All this is why things happen...or don't!







So then according to the Canadian 2 days later Saturday morning check out where that trough is. Jet stream lifted north.. Irma able to get closer to U.S





Bottom line..... Lots of players, lots of time, lots of figuring out. That Jet stream dip is still over Alaska right now currently Saturday the 1st
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