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Old 09-01-2017, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest Euro12z last frame available puts Intense Irma off Florida coast.


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Old 09-01-2017, 02:05 PM
 
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Afternoon models are placing their bets on how well Irma can handle the Limbo bar while celebrating Labor Day: (the dip between 45 and 60degrees West)
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Old 09-01-2017, 02:24 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Afternoon models are placing their bets on how well Irma can handle the Limbo bar while celebrating Labor Day: (the dip between 45 and 60degrees West)
or those unaware.. on that map CMC = Canadian model. ECM = Euro model. Scroll up to my posts to see the position there as I posted those models.. Looks like most have a path well off land. If it didn't do the "limbo" we wouldn't be talking about this as much. Would of just curved right out sooner
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Old 09-01-2017, 02:57 PM
 
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Glad I moved to the west coast and don't have to deal with hurricanes anymore. Now I just have to worry about earthquakes and volcano's lol. Irma won't be good for anyone if it makes landfall.
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Old 09-01-2017, 04:12 PM
 
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5pEST: Winds 120mph, moving West 13mph, pressure 964mb. Starting the well predicted slow curve down to the WSW/SW....moving West is the first step of that. How far it goes down will have major implications on where it goes next week. I wouldn't expect any significant changes in predicted track until Monday with this storm personally (high agreement with models until nears Caribbean & data will be taken from inside the storm reguarally by aircraft recon starting Sunday which feeds into the models to give us better data starting Monday).
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Old 09-01-2017, 04:48 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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I bet Twitter and Facebook is blowing up because of the latest GFS. LOL


Check this out! Sandy wanna be??????? Interesting solution..............


On the left is the new update for Thursday evening the 7th. on the right is the previous update. New update is deeper and slower with the trough. This looks like it would kick Irma OTS. Previous update allowed Irma to hit Rhode Island because the trough left first.





Well......... Fascinating scenario..


By Saturday morning The Jet Streams are Phasing! (merging together). See that open gap down there, they are merging. That's because of perfect timing the trough stuck around more and Hurricane is interacting. So this told me Irma would pull into the coast (Yes, Sandy like but not dragging West like it but similar with the trough catching a hurricane)


The trough is catching the Hurricane. Insane! I knew what the end result would be...





BOOM. NYC hit. Get your fingers off the panic button, this is only 1 solution and likely to change. Interesting to see though. I remember models showing Sandy's move constantly from like 6 days out. We are still 10 days away here


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Old 09-01-2017, 05:00 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,490,309 times
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From the 5pm update:


Quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017


...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 39.1W
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 39.1 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest
is expected tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).






http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...L_floater.html




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Old 09-01-2017, 05:14 PM
 
Location: New York
11,337 posts, read 17,856,397 times
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It isn't very often that you see model runs depicting a direct landfall on NYC (a difficult feat due to its geographic position). Very ominous threat indeed. Still more than a week out, but I think an east coast strike (or brush) is more likely than not.

At the risk of sounding crazy, I just *knew* Sandy was going to affect us (NYC Area) in one way or another from far out. I don't have that same feel with Irma, at least not yet.
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Old 09-01-2017, 06:08 PM
 
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Local news (Houston) said Irma will be heading up the east coast and may bump New England and go out into the Atlantic. Mention of another storm behind Irma which will be Jose if all is said and done.
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Old 09-01-2017, 06:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sollaces View Post
Local news (Houston) said Irma will be heading up the east coast and may bump New England and go out into the Atlantic. Mention of another storm behind Irma which will be Jose if all is said and done.
Sounds like they were just writing off Irma as not coming to Houston becuase entire US East coast is in play currently.
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