Atlantic - Irma forms August 30, 2017 (seasons, storm, map, South)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by pjb3589

This is probably a dumb question so forgive me, but what exactly is pulling Irma so far west? Shouldn't it be pulled east by Jose?

Originally Posted by mels

There is an area of low pressure moving from the west across the US, plus high pressure (Bermuda high) over Bermuda. Irma is squeezed between the two, forcing the drastic northerly turn. Hurricanes move east to west across the ocean. It wouldn't backtrack east (for the most part, without getting too far into the weeds with the explanation).

Without getting too technical, it's not so much about "pulling". As Mels said, it's pretty much blocked to the left and right.


You can use the Jet Stream/Steering currents to see this.. Small white arrows along the lines are the winds at the level.


The X on the right actually shifted west more past day or so.. Tropical Cyclones go to the path of least resistance and there's an opening between the 2 X's blocked areas.


You also have the Jet stream dip in Eastern U.S (trof) but I'll stop here.

[Cambium]

Those of you who lose power, maybe you will still have internet with your cell phones or Satellite?


Get those batteries fully charged.


Probably too late but I have one of these. Just go in your car and get a charge or use laptop and get on the net with Cell phone access.


Anyway - TWC will be live on Satellite Radio


https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/s...06143433228293

[Psychoma]

8pEST: Irma just along Cuba coastline. And was able to fully finish the eye wall replacement cycle just in time to help keep it from weakening as easily. Air recon actually measuring slightly lower pressure and winds around 160mph in NE quadrant (top right corner of eye-wall which is the strongest point of a hurricane) which shows its strengthening again. Land hasn't affected the core just yet. Turn starts anytime. If eye fully goes on shore in cuba should weaken some but waters between Cuba and FL are VERY warm and re-strengthening is possible.

[ilovemycomputer90]

Razor thin margin between the eye wall and Cuba.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90

Razor thin margin between the eye wall and Cuba.

Very surprised how close its getting. I think the NAM model showed that the best. Have to look back. Cant believe its traveling west still. Should start making the turn tomorrow morning.

Georgia & even TN will get a big wind storm. Wonder if anyone will be in the Mountains

https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/sta...99998643650561

[ilovemycomputer90]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Very surprised how close its getting. I think the NAM model showed that the best. Have to look back. Cant believe its traveling west still. Should start making the turn tonight

https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/sta...99998643650561

Yeah, I didn't think it would get so close to Cuba. I knew they were going to get sideswiped, but looks much worst than expected. Didn't make that turn towards the north yet.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90

It looks like Cuba is getting hammered.

I'm baffled how that land interaction is not affecting the strength. I would have figured a drop in strength then a rebuild over the Florida Straits. And yes, that north Cuba coast must be getting battered.

[ilovemycomputer90]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Georgia & even TN will get a big wind storm. Wonder if anyone will be in the Mountains

Yeah it's going to have some pretty severe impacts well inland. Let's not forget about Alabama. They won't be completely spared. Note the part I bolded...track means a world of difference for various areas.

Hurricane Irma is expected to move northward through the southeastern
United States next week. For central Alabama, the most active
weather, including highest wind gusts and heaviest rains, is expected
east of I-65 during the Monday to Tuesday time frame. Winds
sustained at 20 to 30 MPH, with gusts around 35 to 45 MPH are
possible. Tropical rains are expected to bring rain totals of 1 to 3
inches. Changes to this forecast are possible and will depend on
Irma`s track in the coming days. A track farther east would mean
lower impacts for central Alabama, while a track farther west would
increase impacts. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts as Irma
nears.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

[pjb3589]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Without getting too technical, it's not so much about "pulling". As Mels said, it's pretty much blocked to the left and right.


You can use the Jet Stream/Steering currents to see this.. Small white arrows along the lines are the winds at the level.


The X on the right actually shifted west more past day or so.. Tropical Cyclones go to the path of least resistance and there's an opening between the 2 X's blocked areas.


You also have the Jet stream dip in Eastern U.S (trof) but I'll stop here.

Thanks to you and mels for the detailed explanation

[fluffydelusions]

NHC data (ATCF) has made Irma a category 5 hurricane again.

https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status...15791750107137