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Old 08-30-2017, 07:06 AM
 
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11aEST/AST 30 August 2017: "93L" becomes Tropical Storm Irma in the far Eastern Atlantic. Located just west of the Cape Verde islands just west of African coast. Will post official track map once released by NHC later. Waaayyyyyyy out there so maybe 1.5wk away storm.

Signs point to a long tracked, strong hurricane coming across the Atlantic. A classic "Cape Verde" hurricane eventually likely. These are the ones to really watch.

Official information from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issued at 5/11am/pmEST here: NHC

Satellite imagery/loops taken every 30 minutes (available 25 minutes after taken) here: Irma Sat imagery




Last edited by Psychoma; 08-30-2017 at 07:26 AM..
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Old 08-30-2017, 09:05 AM
 
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11aEST 30 August 2017: Winds 50mph, moving West 13mph, pressure 1004mb. Could become a hurricane this weekend.

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Old 08-30-2017, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Every model develops Irma into a strong Hurricane. Projected path for now is as follows.









Here's the latest Euro for Hour 240 (Sept 9th).


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Old 08-30-2017, 06:00 PM
 
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5pmEST/AST: Winds 60mph, moving W 15mph, pressure 1001mb.
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Old 08-31-2017, 03:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Lots of convection overnight and Irma is close to becoming a Hurricane now. Probably will be with next update:


Quote:
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 32.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 32.9 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion is expected today and tonight, followed by a generally
westward motion on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Irma is likely to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).



Note the path shifting SouthWest soon. Further south in latitude it goes, the higher chances for a U.S hit


National Hurricane Center







Overnight models continue its projection of a very strong Hurricane and with a blocking High in the Atlantic like that, there's no early recurving so it will continue Westbound. Question is, will that Canadian High coming down with a front kick it away from Eastern Seaboard or will Irma stay low and go into the Gulf?? Timing Timing Timing. So fascinating to watch.





Last edited by Cambium; 08-31-2017 at 04:18 AM..
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Old 08-31-2017, 04:04 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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This Rainbow Loop shows the Cloud temperatures. Darker colors = colder clouds which means they are taller as well. Notice the increase around the center. It's strengthening.


Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters - Satellite Products and Services Division - Office of Satellite and Product Operations


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Old 08-31-2017, 04:55 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest GFS update hits North Carolina.





Just for the newbies who aren't familiar, these model outputs are not a forecast, they are simply a possibility based on current atmospheric conditions and the calculated results per the model. They can do like 50-100 trillion calculations per second then generate a mean output. All we know right now is that all models develop this into a major hurricane, they each bring it somewhere different.



They can change update to update or day to day. Once we get closer in time they become more consistent.
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Old 08-31-2017, 06:40 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Top of the spread is a possibility, bottom of the spread is a possibility but look at the mean path of all possibilities.

Also.. I always keep an extra eye on these lower latitude hurricanes. They always seem to be the biggest threats to land

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/statu...88547304964097
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Old 08-31-2017, 07:24 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
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Atlantic - Irma forms August 30, 2017-irma1.jpg

IR images suggest Irma has developed an eye. She is spinning up quickly.

Weathernerds GOES 16 Satellite Data
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Old 08-31-2017, 08:23 AM
 
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Ya, likely a hurricane at 11a update with that eye already!

LOT of uncertainty but the consistency among models to go with a strong storm and consistency on bringing towards the northern Caribbean means a high confidence up to that point. Beyond that models differ greatly. Potential US inpact of a major hurricane continues to increase. Keep in mind if it interacts with Cuba, Puerto Rico or the 10,000ft high mountains of Hispaniola(Haiti/Dominican Republic...nick-named the Hurricane Shredder), then that alters storm strength.

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-31-2017 at 08:52 AM..
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