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Old 09-13-2017, 07:49 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg, VA
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Good news!
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Old 09-14-2017, 06:25 AM
 
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5aEST 14Sept2017: Winds 75mph, moving West 3mph, pressure 986mb. Rounding the southern portion of the loop its doing, so will turn more towards the North/NW soon. Still have to watch how close it gets to the East coast between Mid-Atlantic area and Maine and points north. Slight chance of another loop further up north as well but seas are pretty cool so no higher end storm expected especially past VA with this particular storm.

Cone map(shows ONLY where center point could be in time).


Early morning models:


Water temps (In Celsius):
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Old 09-14-2017, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg, VA
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Thanks! I was a little worried about this one, since we have a major outdoor event in Hampton Roads coming up. But unless one of the oddball spaghetti strands wins out, it looks like we'll be fine.
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Old 09-14-2017, 10:13 AM
 
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11amEST does nudge it westward ever so slightly. Now down to a Tropical Storm, but likely back up to a Cat1 hurricane or so before too long.

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Old 09-14-2017, 02:52 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Not ignoring the west trend on the models past couple days..just too far out still to fret and none have it close enough or hit to worry. Eastern MA capes should keep close eye though.
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Old 09-15-2017, 04:22 AM
 
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Friday AM: Those little nudges to the west along with that possibility of the second loop dee loop keeping NC to Maine in play for Jose still as a hurricane:

From NHC: " Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days."

Cone map:
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Old 09-15-2017, 04:37 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Oh no, not these updates again....

Latest Main model update....


GFS: Affects NYC to Boston September 20th and makes landfall on the MA Capes then Out to Sea

Canadian: Same as GFS except slightly weaker (but still strong) and faster for the 19th

Euro: Says I'm going to troll New England but instead I'll stop and make a UTurn and hit NJ. (as a very weak storm at that point)

Navy: Hits NJ as well with a Sandy like move





Latest Hurricane models. You should see the animation of past 5 updates. Such a westward shift..


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Old 09-15-2017, 04:43 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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That red path is the Euro which I pointed out in post above. The rest are the Euro Ensembles (all individual members).


In other words, only a couple agree with the main operational Euro model with the uturn and hitting NJ like that but most of them bring it mighty close to the coast as shown in the yellow and light blue shading




https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...30310325248000


The GFS ensembles also has been trending west past couple days. All the "L's" are the position of the Low with each model member


https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/s...99419699564544
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Old 09-15-2017, 05:02 AM
 
Location: Hartford County, CT
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So much for a fish storm.
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Old 09-15-2017, 05:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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There is some strong blocking High to the north of the region... That's a key player with Jose. Some folks like Ed here never gave up on it. And so far with the west shifts past few days. he's been right!


he circles the Block : aka Ridge: aka High Pressure


https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...47565922578432
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