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Old 09-11-2017, 05:43 PM
 
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Seems like it lived up to the hype - just go onto youtube/facebook and google any place in key largo, st martin, etc..
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Old 09-12-2017, 05:21 AM
 
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Originally Posted by JMagliola View Post
Seems like it lived up to the hype - just go onto youtube/facebook and google any place in key largo, st martin, etc..
Well..while being a real menace and certainly a memorable storm, this did NOT lead up to the hype.
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Old 09-12-2017, 05:39 AM
 
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Irma's only the strongest known Atlantic hurricane to form outside the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. It's also the second-most intense Atlantic hurricane in terms of wind speed, with max winds of 185 mph.

The most intense tropical cyclone on record was Typhoon Tip in the western Pacific during 1979. That storm was an absolute beast: 190 mph max winds, min pressure of 870 mb, and it was also the largest tropical cyclone ever- at nearly 1,400 miles in diameter (large enough to cover half of the US). I doubt many people can even begin to comprehend the kind of damage a storm the same size and strength could inflict on the US. A couple of years ago, Hurricane Patricia nearly beat Tip's record, when it intensified within just 36 hours from a tropical storm to the second-strongest tropical cyclone of all time, with max winds of 215 mph!!! Though Patricia went on to do surprisingly little damage given its monstrous intensity.
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Old 09-12-2017, 07:29 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ProtoStrata View Post
Irma's only the strongest known Atlantic hurricane to form outside the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. It's also the second-most intense Atlantic hurricane in terms of wind speed, with max winds of 185 mph.

The most intense tropical cyclone on record was Typhoon Tip in the western Pacific during 1979. That storm was an absolute beast: 190 mph max winds, min pressure of 870 mb, and it was also the largest tropical cyclone ever- at nearly 1,400 miles in diameter (large enough to cover half of the US). I doubt many people can even begin to comprehend the kind of damage a storm the same size and strength could inflict on the US. A couple of years ago, Hurricane Patricia nearly beat Tip's record, when it intensified within just 36 hours from a tropical storm to the second-strongest tropical cyclone of all time, with max winds of 215 mph!!! Though Patricia went on to do surprisingly little damage given its monstrous intensity.
There may never be another Tip..there may be a larger cyclone...or stronger but both combined with that pressure?
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Old 09-12-2017, 11:54 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
"Right" to both of you, of course.

The point is, The Talking Heads on TV never point out that measured history in this case is only decades long. They make it sound like a storm of this magnitude has never existed on planet earth. And they couldn't possibly know that.

Note that - ironically - the Great Storm of 1900 hit Galveston on this date and killed 12,000 people! It had been in the Atlantic, and had visited Cuba, but no one really had much of an idea how intense it was.
Read Isaac's Storm by Eric Larson for a complete story.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005PRJNCY...ng=UTF8&btkr=1
While the powers of the storms are very similar, the situations were totally dissimilar in that there was no advance warning as we have now, there was no sea wall as there is now, the construction codes were nonexistent in 1900---
12K people lost their lives because mainly of a LACK of information and adequate safeguards...
That is the object lesson that people likely won't take from Irma---
In Fl on the west coast in area where we have second home, people are acting like there was nothing to fear after the fact because Irma was not the same storm ON SHORE that was predicted just few hours earlier...
But there was really no accurate way to know that...
The fact that her following half fell apart or that the dryer air coming into her core from the back door would have such a significant effect could not have been know and taken as a sureity 12 or 24 hours before...

There is only so much time people have to react in situations like these---
People who left the state (and I know a few) had children and wanted to ensure their children's safety.
Maybe they didn't have a Cat5 bunker they could go to
Maybe they saw what happened on St Martins and thought that was a valid effect IF IRMA LANDED CLOSE TO THEM...
and hey---if you have 24 hour window to save your child then maybe that is a reason to leave...


I fault the media because they aren't about information---they are about ratings
And in their mind's eye the way to get that is with dramatic visuals of people in scary situations becaise no body wants to listen to someone lecturing about math and physics...
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Old 09-12-2017, 08:29 PM
 
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I'm glad that the hurricane was not as bad as predicted in FL. That said I think we need to hold meteorologists more accountable. They predicted almost everything wrong about this storm, the storm surge height, wind speeds, what side of FL it would even hit, and the reverse storm surge that happened. I have friends in FL who were worried about losing their homes because they predicted everything wrong. Even after things were improving they just kept pushing fear mongering. I remember when it was bearing down on tampa they said it moved 15 miles west, but said "oh, this actually means the storm surge will be WORSE folks" on CNN instead of telling the truth that it will be weaker. They were also doing things like reporting the wind speed in the hurricane off shore as the current wind speed in a certain city. But when I looked up that citys local wind speed it was much lower. There was alot of fear mongering by the media.
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Old 09-13-2017, 10:13 AM
 
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Originally Posted by tar21 View Post
I'm glad that the hurricane was not as bad as predicted in FL. That said I think we need to hold meteorologists more accountable. They predicted almost everything wrong about this storm, the storm surge height, wind speeds, what side of FL it would even hit, and the reverse storm surge that happened. I have friends in FL who were worried about losing their homes because they predicted everything wrong. Even after things were improving they just kept pushing fear mongering. I remember when it was bearing down on tampa they said it moved 15 miles west, but said "oh, this actually means the storm surge will be WORSE folks" on CNN instead of telling the truth that it will be weaker. They were also doing things like reporting the wind speed in the hurricane off shore as the current wind speed in a certain city. But when I looked up that citys local wind speed it was much lower. There was alot of fear mongering by the media.
Huh?

The track was right. The wind speed was only down slightly. What made this storm less ferocious on the west side was the battering the southern part of the storm took from Cuba and an entrainment of dry air from the west. The MEDIA went overboard and on that I agree. When the storm went west of Tampa as you said, they should have backed off but they went full steam ahead. That was when I turned off the TV. But if this storm had stayed 40 Miles north in its run past Cuba it would have been a HUGE problem. Do you really expect a perfect prediction when the models show what they show? THATS ALL THEY CAN GO BY. LOL...held accountable



I think they did a pretty good job with the exception of the Cuba thing and the ridiculous standing on the western side storm surge when the southern side of the storm was clearly out of gas.
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Old 09-13-2017, 12:44 PM
 
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Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Huh?

The track was right. The wind speed was only down slightly. What made this storm less ferocious on the west side was the battering the southern part of the storm took from Cuba and an entrainment of dry air from the west. The MEDIA went overboard and on that I agree. When the storm went west of Tampa as you said, they should have backed off but they went full steam ahead. That was when I turned off the TV. But if this storm had stayed 40 Miles north in its run past Cuba it would have been a HUGE problem. Do you really expect a perfect prediction when the models show what they show? THATS ALL THEY CAN GO BY. LOL...held accountable



I think they did a pretty good job with the exception of the Cuba thing and the ridiculous standing on the western side storm surge when the southern side of the storm was clearly out of gas.
Spot on!
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Old 09-13-2017, 10:27 PM
 
Location: SW Florida
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When I watched the video from space showing the actual track, I thought it was impressive that they all said FOR SURE it would turn North, which it did, and it was really only slightly off their prediction when it headed up the peninsula. And they did say it could weaken if it spent time over Cuba. But they didn't sound confident in that at all. There were many people in my Sarasota-Bradenton area who intended to stay home.....because the track kept changing...until Friday and then Saturday, when it locked on to our area and looked like we were doomed. I seriously thought when I left my condo to go to the shelter (school) around the corner, that I'd come back to nothing. Obviously it was wonderful to see my condo undamaged and even my car, which sat outside the shelter during the storm....but so many of my friends traveled hours and hours and spent lots of money on gas and hotels, not to mention the stress of getting out and now trying to get home. I'm sure Harvey was also a factor. But I think it it happens again, and I hope it doesn't, that people will not evacuate like they did this time.
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Old 09-14-2017, 08:26 AM
 
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Yes--I think some people thought that it would be like the Carribbean. I know some people in my neighborhood just didn't watch any cable news like Weather Channel or CNN because of the over hype...and they sheltered in place w/o much damage because the bottom fell out of Irma...as some of the posters on CD Hurricane forum started to predict...

But the people in my neighborhood and others in our immediate area around Nokomis/Osprey/SRQ I read on Next Door posts KNOW for the most part they got off relatively lightly. We loaned a pet crate to someone in our neighborhood who went to the North Port high school shelter--one of the highest and most bunker like in area--and while her home escaped any real damage.....they were glad they evacuated. She spoke about the kindness of the volunteers in the shelter == one took her dog out of crate, wrapped him in blanket, and held him for two hours during the worst of the storm (and he had Xanax on top of that)...

But I am also reading posts from people on FB comments on SRQ Emergency Mgmt or SRQ county complaining about loss of power or not having all services up and running.
So many people are not self-actuating...Plenty of people in my neighborhood w/o power seem totally incapable of understanding how you can file a ticket with FLP and track it online or by phone...they want someone to hold their hand every step of the way...
I don't have patience for that kind of coddling... Likely they are sitting around in a friend's home w/AC and not doing anything to help those in worse shape...

And yes, I think seeing Harvey so close to Irma's arrival had impact but seeing the damage Irma did in the Carribbean was even more of a scary factor. I prayed for Irma to make a serious landfall on Cuba and while it was not good for Cuba, it certainly made a difference for the west side of FL. The east side--being on the "dirty" side---took the real brunt although there are smaller towns around SRQ like Acadia which got hit really bad...guess closer to the eye wall coming through...

There are people trying to claim Irma was a bust--not a serious hurricane--and frankly they are sitting someplace w/AC and gas and no issues to deal with...
So it like someone who never had a close relative deal with Cancer or other serious disease tell you they are not a real problem...bull****...

I hope people NEVER underestimate the danger of a hurricane...at least you have more lead time with that natural disaster...tornadoes start up w/o lot of notice and are even more capricious than hurricanes...

News article in the Dallas paper about threat of very icy winter
People need to pay attention and take steps now to mitigate damage--
Like insulate pipes in attic, maybe add more insulation, start acquiring supplies to help like cat litter for traction on ice, bottled water, food, batteries for lamps when power goes out--
Maybe propane heaters--
In TX many people have NG heaters which would still work but they often have electric igniters--so if electric is off, the heater does not work...
We went through horrible ice storm in early 80s and lived in front of our wood burning fireplace for two days because our heat was out...

The worst failure is lack of imagination---and if you think "it" whatever it might be can't happen to you if the threat is reasonable and don't make any preparations then you are a fool...
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