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Old 09-19-2017, 08:59 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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St Croix airport just failed to report wind speed. Safe to assume their instrument gone.
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:01 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Forecast 16

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 64.7W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 909 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 64.7W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 64.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.8W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 68.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:03 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 64.7 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands within the next couple of hours, then cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur before the hurricane reaches Puerto Rico, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the area of hurricane-force winds has increased in size. Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb (26.85 inches).
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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St Croix airport now lost their pressure guage or it is below calibration limit.
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:13 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Tidal station only updates hourly and should be more hardened. It is also more protected than airport. It last saw gust of 76 knots. So I estimate airport saw a gust of around 100 knots as they forecasted. We will never know peak at airport as instrument obviously down.
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:33 PM
 
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At 11:08pmEST/AST a weather station measured 108mph gust on SW corner of St. Croix.

Core winds of Maria may miss St. Croix to their SW, but just barely, baring any wobbles of the eye.
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Old 09-19-2017, 10:23 PM
 
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12aEST/AST: Core/strongest winds look to JUST stay SW off of St. Croix where they're (western areas of St. Croix) currently measuring 75mph sustained and gust to 114mph.

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Old 09-19-2017, 10:52 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,259,140 times
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The air speed monitor on North side of Island has stopped. South side tidal monitor still working with latest gust if 82 knots. (94mph).

Not too far from this monitor are many oil tanks.

There are millions of barrels of oil stored on St Croix at the old refinery which used to be the largest in the world. It closed down a few years ago.

The eye wall is just off the SW corner of St Croix.
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Old 09-19-2017, 11:27 PM
 
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1aEST/AST: NHC reports sustained winds of 90mph western tip of St. Croix, gust to 127mph. Another weather sensor network just recorded 100mph sustained with gust to 137mph western area of St. Croix (see their wind measurements here: http://www.windalert.com/map#17.643,-64.819,9,1,48692 )

Recon shows eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) has begun, so that outer rain band will now slowly contract inward and replace the core eye wall rain band. This will temporarily weaken Maria into Wednesday, but question is how quickly will this happen (it's a multi hour process) because after its completed the storm is free to intensify over warm waters but if doesn't finish then potentially weaker storm hits Puerto Rico.
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Old 09-19-2017, 11:42 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,259,140 times
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Well South tidal station closest to eye wall appears to be toast. Or soggy bread. No measurements are coming in and a message says "Note: This station is currently in high water condition."

Looking at it's website I see the station as a whole was situated just 10 feet above the sea.

I gather the entire station went under water.

Harvey, Irma, and Maria are helping to define just how high and rugged sensors need to be in order to provide measurements during these events.
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