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Old 09-20-2017, 12:09 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,259,642 times
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Eye wall replacement can be seen real-time on the radar at

San Juan, PR

Read up on what it is at
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyew...lacement_cycle

Next report expect Maria to be down graded to perhaps a 4 .

Updated:

Maria this past hour appears to have turned more to the North.

It appears to be on a direct course for San Juan. The bad news about the eye wall replacement, is the eye wall itself, will be so much larger when making land fall. So while winds may be less intense, overall damage will be more spread out.

There are still a few hours to flee suspect buildings in PR and try and locate stronger structures.

It doesn't have to be an entire building. I hid behind a cement water tank on a hill. The good thing with a place like that is you simply move around the tank as the winds change.

Last edited by pbmaise; 09-20-2017 at 01:30 AM..
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Old 09-20-2017, 01:32 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Another tidal weather reporting station I was monitoring is now down. It was located between St. Croix and PR on Vieques island. Last recorded wind gust was only 50 knots. It was however close to sea level so I suspect it was inundated and didn't fail from wind speed.
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Old 09-20-2017, 01:45 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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The next tidal station is on PR itself.

This one is on SE corner and has already seen wind gusts over 50 knots.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=9754228

It is really too late for anyone to move around on any cities on PR SE coast.


The tidal station near San Juan can be seen at this link.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=9755371

I have attached a photo of what this station looks like

As you can see in photo it is not very high above sea level. So I expect it to be inundated too. Peak gust here is already 40 knots.

If you are talking with someone in San Juan it will be very shortly too late to try and flee to higher or stronger location.
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Old 09-20-2017, 01:53 AM
 
Location: On the Great South Bay
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pbmaise View Post
The next tidal station is on PR itself.

This one is on SE corner and has already seen wind gusts over 50 knots.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=9754228

It is really too late for anyone to move around on any cities on PR SE coast.


The tidal station near San Juan can be seen at this link.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=9755371

I have attached a photo of what this station looks like

As you can see in photo it is not very high above sea level. So I expect it to be inundated too. Peak gust here is already 40 knots.

If you are talking with someone in San Juan it will be very shortly too late to try and flee to higher or stronger location.
It looks like to me that in addition to a surge hitting the tidal station, those solar panels are not going to last long either.
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Old 09-20-2017, 02:04 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LINative View Post
It looks like to me that in addition to a surge hitting the tidal station, those solar panels are not going to last long either.
Agree on solar panels, however they only charge batteries. If these remain dry station can still transmit.

The airport at San Juan appears already off line and last reported in at 59mph over an hour ago.

Airports seem to fail too early and failed at Key West, St Croix, and now San Juan.
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Old 09-20-2017, 02:18 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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There are around 100 vessels in a big Marina, Punta Fraile, on SE corner of PR. Wind gusts there now exceed 70 knots. Many vessels are on the hard. Expect to see many photos of destroyed vessels soon.

It is way too late to move anywhere on SE PR.
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Old 09-20-2017, 02:35 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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San Juan airport not quite dead. Just very late with a report of gust 67 mph.

Too late to move anywhere in San Juan
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Old 09-20-2017, 02:59 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Forecast 17


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.6N 66.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
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Old 09-20-2017, 03:00 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track the eye of Maria will make landfall in Puerto Rico in a couple of hours, cross Puerto Rico today, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and it should maintain this intensity until landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Fajardo recently reported sustained winds of 79 mph (128 km/h) with a gust to 100 mph (161 km/h).
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 917 mb (27.08 inches).
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Old 09-20-2017, 03:21 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,259,642 times
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Gusts at tidal station SE PR now exceed 80 knots (92mph).

Bay front San Juan gusts has dropped slightly to just over 40 knots

Update: SE PR now 86 knots
see station at
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=9754228
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