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Old 09-20-2017, 03:35 AM
 
166 posts, read 202,265 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pbmaise View Post
For those wondering about lack of pictures from Dominica.

Many larger yachts have fully equipped independent sources of power and communication which can broadcast via satellite. Even if blown to shore much of this equipment still works.

Unlike the islands hit by Irma, Dominica has very few yachties. On Google Earth I counted just over 50 vessels on moorings on the NW corner with open sea to the West. This is a tiny number.

Further, I saw no repair yards where yachts would still be sitting high and dry after the storm.

Likely, people with the most capable vessels fled before the storm since there are also no "hurricane holes" on Dominica.

Combine all these factors now with how Maria hit.

Maria's highest winds would have swept any vessels on weak moorings and lines out to sea instead of on to shore.

Result:

Far fewer vessels to send out reports, almost no vessels on shore with satellite communications.
.

Note: I did a count of vessels on moorings on St. Croix. About 35 and most were very small. With 185 mph winds expected on St Croix we may see a similar lack of instant photos once winds hit.


If this was St. John's Island you would have had streaming video before/during/after complete with drone footage the second drones could fly. Why? They have a protected harbor full of superyachts. These tend to be well insured so they don't bother to flee if a hurricane is arriving.

About CNN, where would you send reporters? To a small non-US island with 72,000 people? Or to Puerto Rico with 3.5 mm US residents? If you said Dominica your team is now stuck on Dominica right when the bigger story is about to occur.

Thank you for that. I, am Dominican. We are awaiting word from our family. Nothing!!! Don't think we haven't tried. All infrastructure is broken. Dominica is right now uncontactable- that is the problem.
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Old 09-20-2017, 03:36 AM
 
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Puerto Rico landfall not far away...

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Old 09-20-2017, 03:43 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,258,388 times
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I plotted the course across PR. The eye of Maria is expected to travel just to the South and West of San Juan. However, most of San Juan is projected to see winds of over 100 knots.

There are about 400,000 people in San Juan.

Ground zero, if you can call it that, appears to be the city of Caguas. 150,000 residents in direct line with the plotted course. Further they are elevated above the sea level and will see stronger winds. Some hills near the city may protect it slightly.

Last edited by pbmaise; 09-20-2017 at 04:06 AM..
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Old 09-20-2017, 04:15 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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San Juan airport on time this time and still alive with peak gust 15 minutes ago of 70 mph.

My favorite tidal station on SE PR peaked at nearly 115 mph and dropped back to 70 mph. However water level is up 5 feet not sure how much longer it will report.

San Juan Bay front tidal station has seen peak gust of 71 mph.
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Old 09-20-2017, 04:18 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,258,388 times
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San Juan Radar appears to have now gone off line.
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Old 09-20-2017, 04:26 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,962 posts, read 57,397,867 times
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This is just sad........ Watch the jog to the "SOUTHWEST" last few frames. Not good. Means more time on land and possibly different path in future


Maria is insane!! Impressive!


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Old 09-20-2017, 04:30 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,962 posts, read 57,397,867 times
Reputation: 13109
NHC 5am update::


Quote:
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA NEARING PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF VIEQUES
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed
by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track the
eye of Maria will make landfall in Puerto Rico in a couple of hours,
cross Puerto Rico today, and pass just north of the northeast coast
of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and it should maintain this
intensity until landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). Fajardo recently reported sustained winds of 79 mph (128
km/h) with a gust to 100 mph (161 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 917 mb (27.08 inches).





Latest Hurricane Model tracks

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Old 09-20-2017, 04:56 AM
 
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Maria has made landfall near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico as a Cat 4 hurricane. The storm did not finish its Eyewall Replacement Cycle causing it to become much weaker.

Radar in Puerto Rico has been knocked out apparently now too (radar was in direct path).
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Old 09-20-2017, 05:19 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,258,388 times
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San Juan tidal station wind indicator shot.

Pressure at station active 981.

Airport report late again or not reporting

Yabucao Harbor tidal station still working.

Update: Airport now 30 minutes late. Not expecting them to report again. Still have a working wind indicator on West side of PR.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=9759394

It is seeing 30 knot winds. It won't see the eye. But will help give an idea of overall level of winds across entire island.

Anyone find any wind indicators near San Juan still operating?

Last edited by pbmaise; 09-20-2017 at 05:47 AM..
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Old 09-20-2017, 05:41 AM
 
9,752 posts, read 9,439,606 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Maria has made landfall near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico as a Cat 4 hurricane. The storm did not finish its Eyewall Replacement Cycle causing it to become much weaker.

Radar in Puerto Rico has been knocked out apparently now too (radar was in direct path).
Much weaker? It's still 917 mb from 910... Barely weaker.
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