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Old 09-20-2017, 05:40 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,263,629 times
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Dam break?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carraízo_Dam

It looks like river has suddenly risen from 25 to 42.9 ft in a very short period.

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
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Old 09-20-2017, 06:30 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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I think over 20" of rain has fallen in some areas...


https://twitter.com/AntonioParis/sta...81641164312581
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Old 09-20-2017, 06:38 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Wow. Play the loop. Watch the eye so cricular and organized then become wildly erratic like she was a lunatic approaching PR

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/910532338735386624
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Old 09-20-2017, 07:17 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Interesting conversation about that loop above. They think St. Croix initiated the eye instability.

Stu says he's going to post a lomg loop of Maria

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/910666878045040640
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Old 09-20-2017, 08:07 PM
 
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In that radar clip it definitely looks like outer wall had started contracting on the inner wobbling inner eye wall. Glad it didn't have time to finish taking over!!! I like the comment in there mentioning its like it became one of the center mesovortices (if you remember I think it was Harvey where we got to see the inside eye several tiny vortices spinning inside the eye). Will be interesting to see if they think St. Croix in the end helped initiate the eye wobble / Eyewall replacement cycle or not as recon data shows it had been hinting at starting it for several hours prior.

Storm off to Puerto Rico's NorthWest, direction of winds coming up from the South across PR will cause more rains to likely fall tonight on the South side of mountains. Very worried about that river flooding and potential for landslides in PR. No radar on Puerto Rico...that went down around sunrise today. Heavy rains spreading into Dominican Republic and some portions of Haiti as well as we go into Thursday.

Fortunate to have visited Puerto Rico in the past, wishing a speedy recovery to our fellow Americans.

Last edited by Psychoma; 09-20-2017 at 08:22 PM..
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Old 09-20-2017, 09:10 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Here we go again. Cat 4 again soon? And looks more west move than north. Maybe new results from the models tonight.

https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather/st...95963223887872
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Old 09-20-2017, 10:00 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,263,629 times
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Forecast 20 does not indicate rebuilding to a 4

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 130SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 67.9W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 67.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 68.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 70.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.7N 71.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.8N 72.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS
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Old 09-20-2017, 10:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pbmaise View Post
Forecast 20 does not indicate rebuilding to a 4

No but it does mention Maria getting better organized and entering favorable conditions and getting back to Cat 3. We'll see if it continues.

Interesting to note it takes a day after a high terrain disruption to recover

Quote:
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

The satellite presentation is a little better organized than
a few hours ago, and Maria now has a large ragged eye. However,
data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
winds are still 95 kt, while the central pressure has remained
unchanged oscillating near 959 mb. Even with the current favorable
low-shear environment and warm ocean, it takes in general about 24
hours for the boundary layer of the hurricane to recover from the
passage over high terrain, in this case Puerto Rico. In addition,
the reconnaissance plane reported two wind maxima and two concentric
eyewalls in the previous penetration, and it just reported that the
inner one has collapsed in the last fix. This suggest that an
eyewall replacement cyclone has occurred. With this complex
scenario, the NHC forecast allows for some small increase in
intensity as suggested by guidance and brings Maria back to category
3 status in about 24 hours
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Old 09-21-2017, 04:38 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,216 posts, read 57,615,398 times
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5am discussion


Quote:
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Although the large, 40 n mi diameter, eye of the hurricane is still
a little ragged-looking, it is gradually becoming better defined,
and a ring of cold cloud tops is intensifying around the eye.
The
current intensity estimate is 100 kt based on earlier Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data and recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB. Maria is likely to move over warm waters with moderate
southwesterly vertical shear for the next couple of days. Maria's
well-developed upper-level outflow suggests that shear is probably
not having much influence over the hurricane at this time.
Although
the numerical guidance is not very aggressive about intensification,
based on the current trends of the cloud pattern, some strengthening
seems likely over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period,
shear will probably cause gradual weakening. The official intensity
forecast is a little above the latest model consensus.

Maria continues its northwestward motion, at about 315/8 kt. The
hurricane is expected to turn north-northwestward and northward
around a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3
days. Late in the forecast period, a mid-level high over the
northeastern U.S. could slow the forward motion somewhat. This
high is forecast by the global models to subsequently weaken
however, which should allow Maria to turn north-northeastward in
the flow on the northwestern edge of a subtropical ridge over the
west-central Atlantic. The official track forecast lies between
the corrected consensus guidance and the latest ECMWF prediction.
This is quite similar to the previous NHC track.
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Old 09-21-2017, 05:19 AM
 
Location: Florida
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Dominica. That's unreal.

Last edited by kab0906; 06-29-2020 at 09:22 AM..
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