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That's a LARGE spread of the thinner lines to the left and right of the thicker lines = large uncertainty in forecast on where center of storm will be. Weak stiring currents (inside the channel it's basically being forced up into) ahead until cold front quickly forces it out it appears.
That's a LARGE spread of the thinner lines to the left and right of the thicker lines = large uncertainty in forecast on where center of storm will be. Weak stiring currents (inside the channel it's basically being forced up into) ahead until cold front quickly forces it out it appears.
Psychoma - My personal interpretation of the latest model runs is that Maria's current path is trending west. I don't think I understand what you are saying about Maria's onward action(s).
Of course there is damage. What I am saying is that the damage is NOT indicative of a cat 4/5. See pics of Hurricane Andrew. That is devastation. That is a Cat 5. Nothing standing. Houses MOWED down. Tons of pics, how did they manage that in an era that didn't have cell phones?
All I am seeing in PR is flooding, trees down, power lines down, and damage to houses that appear to be made of tin and plywood. How were these poorly made houses standing before the storm anyway??? I saw one concrete piling laying down on a road, all the others on the street were upright, I think that pic was on CNN?
In the few pics that are being circulated, this wind damage is indicative of a Cat 2, NOT a Cat 4. That's all I am saying. As someone who is innundated with hurricane hype every time a cloud farts, the hype of Maria is not matching the destruction thus far.
ADD: Still no pics of Barbuda or Dominica.
Fine, don't take my word for it. Not like I have family down in PR and cannot get in touch with them because the island is devastated. I assure you, the unfortunate pictures I have seen are easily Cat 4 (I would argue even Cat 5) type damage. My wife is in tears when she sees pictures of her hometown or even areas around it that are still able to be traveled to. Much if the interior island is severed from the coastal areas. She has been through Hugo and Georges down on the island. And what she has seen now far exceeds what she went through.
Again, did you ever think that maybe the only pics you are seeing is of "minor" damage is because people cannot get to the devastating damage? Never question why mother nature does things. I don't have an explanation on how one house can survive a hurricane with little to no damage while one a few feet away is destroyed. Same way a tornado can seem to "pick and choose" what it wants to destroy. I am sorry the level of destruction has not matched your hopes.
Actually, the fact that we are arguing about the extent of the damage is stupid. People have lost their lives. Whether it is a Cat 1 or a Cat 5, it doesn't matter. On an island that is in such bad shape as PR is, a direct hit from any hurricane would have caused major issues. It's as if you think the media has made up how strong this storm is.
Psychoma - My personal interpretation of the latest model runs is that Maria's current path is trending west. I don't think I understand what you are saying about Maria's onward action(s).
You are correct, the models have been trending West. My comment was just mentioning how in the previous image with all those model tracks how there were several little ones (in between the orange lines I've added below) that are to the left and to the right of the main group (in the red lines I've added). Basically was just noting the wider spread at that point (a wider spread means confidence in where the storm will be is lower, so don't be surprised if the main group of tracks keeps shifting every model run(s) to the left or to the right at this point). But that will all narrow down in time.
Regardless of where Maria ends up around middle of next week though, a strong cold front will quickly kick it out to sea, question is still how close and where to land it gets before being pushed off the coast.
Aerial footage shows the spill-way working as intended in keeping the water from over topping the dam but the lower portion of the spillway has eroded away and is eating into the face of the dam which could cause it to fail.
11amEST/AST: Winds 115mph, moving NNW 8mph, pressure 952mb. NHC discussion says forward movement speed expected to decrease over the next few days, so a very slow moving storm on our hands. You can see the uncertainty towards the Tuesday/Thursday time period with the larger cone spread then. But as we get closer in time that should narrow. To help narrow that down sooner, extra readings from across the E and SE US will be conducted starting today and that will feed more data into the models.
Nope, not gonna happen. Clearly VA Beach had applies anti hurricane spray this year.
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