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Old 09-18-2017, 07:34 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,228,557 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Maria is sssooooo tiny...going to make it easy to obtain Cat4+ shortly if not already.
I am uncertain about this claim.

Is intensification slower for a larger system?

To me this is counterintuitive.

If anything, a larger system would draw far more air and moisture from the region.

Further, I see a gradual change between lower and higher speed winds owing to a widely spread out storm as a reason the inner core will be more intense.

I do agree on one key point here. Even though both Irma and Maria were Cat 5 people are pointing out that this hurricane is not as of yet anywhere near the size of Irma.

Here in the Pacific we do have a term for this size difference. We call some Cat 5 cyclones Super Typhoons. Hence Super denotes size.

If I remember correctly JTWC doesn't recognize the term and JTC and PAGAS do. Yet JTWC owing to being Joint with Japan adds the notation.
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Old 09-18-2017, 07:54 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,211 posts, read 56,674,324 times
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Did those 73,000 get off that island???? I dont want to see pics from there.

https://twitter.com/BrettAWX/status/909956336175206400
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Old 09-18-2017, 07:55 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/909916131938504704
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Old 09-18-2017, 08:48 PM
 
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Twitter is going crazy with horror stories from Dominica. I hope it's not as bad as it seems.
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Old 09-18-2017, 09:05 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,228,557 times
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Forecast and advisory 12 no significant changes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...e_and_wind.png

Although track looks like more South and West.

In addition to bullseye hit on Puerto Rico, I think there is still a chance US mainland in play.
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Old 09-18-2017, 10:06 PM
 
Location: Buenos Aires and La Plata, ARG
2,341 posts, read 1,960,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spazkat9696 View Post
Twitter is going crazy with horror stories from Dominica. I hope it's not as bad as it seems.
Even the premier of the island has his house destroyed and is asking for help. Scary
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Old 09-19-2017, 02:26 AM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
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Maria really didn't want to be upstaged by Irma, huh?
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:07 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,228,557 times
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Condensed 13 down to 4 but expected to rebuild

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 62.3W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 61.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 63.4W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.6N 64.8W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:11 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,228,557 times
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Track in forecast 13 also moved more South West. However, looks like San Juan is in direct path.
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:39 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Happened to PR in 1928 and 1899 and that was before the climate was changing.

https://twitter.com/BillKarins/statu...00368539488256
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