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Old 10-04-2017, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,227,532 times
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Unlike Harvey Irma or Maria, this system is moving fast and only has a short time to develop.

Yes it is forecast to become a hurricane, however it will be a small fraction of the past three. Scale, winds, and rainfall will be far lower.

This said hurricanes and winds of 70 knots gusting to 85 knots can still do considerable damage.

Fortunately it is scheduled to arrive on the weekend. So if you live along the Gulf Coast it might be a great weekend to plan an inland trip.
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Old 10-04-2017, 09:22 PM
 
3,218 posts, read 2,383,969 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pbmaise View Post
Comments:

Unlike Harvey Irma or Maria, this system is moving fast and only has a short time to develop.

Yes it is forecast to become a hurricane, however it will be a small fraction of the past three. Scale, winds, and rainfall will be far lower.

This said hurricanes and winds of 70 knots gusting to 85 knots can still do considerable damage.

Fortunately it is scheduled to arrive on the weekend. So if you live along the Gulf Coast it might be a great weekend to plan an inland trip.
Remember how quickly Harvey went from TS to cat 4: don't rule out anything!
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Old 10-05-2017, 02:47 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,227,532 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ABrandNewWorld View Post
Remember how quickly Harvey went from TS to cat 4: don't rule out anything!
True, people should always keep a wary eye on any cyclone especially when traveling over warm waters.

I found in general forecasters have consistently under reported the maximum intensity. One would think about 1/2 the time it would be over estimated and 1/2 the time under estimated. I question whether politics plays apart in under reporting since forecasters don't want to cry wolf.

One thing I noted in Forecast 1 was in addition to the standard rider about long term position is subject to error there was a statement about intensity error.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY.
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Old 10-05-2017, 04:14 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,227,532 times
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Forecast 4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO RIO LAGARTOS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 83.3W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 83.3W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.8N 89.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N 86.5W...INL,AND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 39.5N 79.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 K
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Old 10-05-2017, 04:29 AM
 
4,295 posts, read 2,176,874 times
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Westward shift overnight:
Atlantic - Nate(?) forming Oct 3 off Nicaragua-img_2549.png

Atlantic - Nate(?) forming Oct 3 off Nicaragua-img_2548.jpg

7-day poss rain totals:
Atlantic - Nate(?) forming Oct 3 off Nicaragua-img_2550.gif
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Old 10-05-2017, 05:45 AM
 
1,080 posts, read 1,440,036 times
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It's official now.

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Old 10-05-2017, 08:48 AM
 
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Hope this avoids SWFL. Still tons of debris just stacked and sitting for waste management pickup. We get high winds here and it will be a HUGE problem.
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Old 10-05-2017, 02:51 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,184 posts, read 56,647,299 times
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We're only on "N" but I feel like we've gone through the whole alphebet. Lol.

Anyway... Nate is expected to have a significant increase in forward speed next few days.
.
Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane
strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

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Old 10-05-2017, 03:57 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,278 posts, read 2,227,532 times
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Forecast 6

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 84.3W AT 05/2100Z...INLAND AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 84.0W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 84.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.3N 87.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N 89.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 38.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 41.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
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Old 10-05-2017, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
4,598 posts, read 3,427,938 times
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https://twitter.com/robperillo/statu...48704775188481
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