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Old 10-05-2017, 05:12 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest Model tracks. Only 2 of the 22 members have it a Cat 2+. Most of them stay weaker than Cat 1.


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Old 10-05-2017, 06:05 PM
 
Location: God's Country
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I hope the mtns. or eastern Tenn., western NC rip Nate's nuts off.
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Old 10-05-2017, 09:36 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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Tropical Storm Nate Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA AL162017
1022 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

This product covers SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

**NATE`S CENTER ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Iberia, Lafayette,
Lower St. Martin, St. Mary, Upper St. Martin, and Vermilion

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Iberia, Lafayette,
Lower St. Martin, St. Mary, Upper St. Martin, and Vermilion

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 1110 miles south-southeast of Cameron LA or about 1040
miles south-southeast of Morgan City LA
- 15.8N 84.7W
- Storm Intensity 40 mph
- Movement Northwest or 325 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 10 PM CDT, Tropical Storm Nate was located off the eastern
coast of Honduras, moving northwest. The storm is expected to begin
moving more northerly overnight and accelerate and strengthen as it
enters the southern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. The storm is
expected to become a hurricane as it moves toward the north central
Gulf coast during the weekend, with a landfall potentially along the
southeast Louisiana coast late Saturday night into early Sunday
morning.

The primary impacts will be northerly winds with gusts to tropical
storm force mainly south and east of a line from Intracoastal City to
Lafayette Saturday and Sunday. Also, rainbands are expected to affect
portions of central and south central Louisiana with rainfall amounts
between one and two inches through Sunday.

Spoiler
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
south central Louisiana. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges and access routes
impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across portions of south central Louisiana.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across central and south central Louisiana. Potential impacts
include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.

Elsewhere across SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

Last edited by ral31; 10-05-2017 at 09:45 PM..
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Old 10-06-2017, 04:45 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
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4am Update: They are saying will be a hurricane when making landfall (should be a weak one). Last Hurricane to hit Louisiana was Issac in 2012.


400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...TROPICAL STORM NATE HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


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Old 10-06-2017, 04:49 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
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Last 6 Hurricanes to hit Louisiana.


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Old 10-06-2017, 06:59 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
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Nate has the potential to cause flooding hundreds of miles inland early next week, especially along portions of the Appalachian Mountains.

Atlantic - Nate(?) forming Oct 3 off Nicaragua-img_2574.gif
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Old 10-06-2017, 10:30 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Nate has the potential to cause flooding hundreds of miles inland early next week, especially along portions of the Appalachian Mountains.

Attachment 190964
Also. Don't be surprised if Nate reaches strong cat 2 or even 3 in the gulf. Nothing to sto it if it's circulation gets its act together
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Old 10-06-2017, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Speaking of flood-surge prone areas... evacuations ordered.

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/s...62163874336768
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Old 10-06-2017, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Such a small swath of 4"+ rains. Wish we were under that

https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/sta...62133453107202
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Old 10-06-2017, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,279 posts, read 2,216,977 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Also. Don't be surprised if Nate reaches strong cat 2 or even 3 in the gulf. Nothing to sto it if it's circulation gets its act together
Well forecast 10 is out and service still predicts peak strength of only 70 knots which is hardly stronger than a squall. So they will be surprised if it does.
However, prepare if you are in the path.


TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * PINAR DEL RIO * LAKE MAUREPAS * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * LAKE MAUREPAS * EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * ISLE OF YOUTH
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 85.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 85.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 87.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.8N 88.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.9N 89.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.1N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.5N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 43.5N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATE
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