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Old 10-06-2017, 04:04 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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From NWS Alabama

https://twitter.com/NWSBirmingham/st...20336463294464
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Old 10-06-2017, 04:06 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest GFS says it makes landfall there around 2am Sunday. Might technically be LA before midnight though.

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Old 10-06-2017, 05:02 PM
 
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Doesn't matter the category, the storm surge and rain amounts are gonna be bad news. Especially in New Orleans, where I read the pumping stations are still not working completely right?
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Old 10-06-2017, 05:29 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weatherphotographer View Post
Doesn't matter the category, the storm surge and rain amounts are gonna be bad news. Especially in New Orleans, where I read the pumping stations are still not working completely right?
Yep. Water (surge / inland rain flooding) is also the biggest killer in US landfalling tropical systems accounting for over 75% of deaths. As of Thursday New Orleans has 108 of 120 pumps operational. Not working include ones in 17th Street Canal, City Park, Algiers and at least five underpass smaller pumps. Didn't see what their power backup capability was. New Orleans has new walls/gates after Katrina to help fight off surge so that should help to some degree for them.
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Old 10-06-2017, 05:32 PM
 
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Note the sentence in the 5pm NHC discussion: " there is still a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico. "
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Old 10-06-2017, 05:33 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Hurricane Warnings issued.

https://wx-legacy.aerisweather.com/m...southeast.html

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Severe/Bulletins.aspx

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Old 10-06-2017, 05:41 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Last time a Hurricane Warning was issued.

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/s...39199968055296
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Old 10-06-2017, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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I did some reading into the subject of rapid intensification (RI).

Firstly I want to point out that a RI is indeed expected. An increase of 25 knots within 24 hours is a RI. Although it isn't a particularly huge one.

Historically, and within most text books RI was seen as owing to a model abbreviated WISHE. This model looks at primarily interaction between warm seawater and air.

However, recent thinking in a paper I read tossed a lot of cold water on the theory.

#1 Many cyclones have passed over warm water without dramatic RI.

#2 We all know some of the worst RI of systems on the planet have occurred over cool or even rather cold water. All sailors know this.

Therefore, the paper I read flat out said sea surface temperatures and RI provided no correlation.

While you can't have a tropical cyclone above a cold sea, the size and intensity that it becomes under RI is not a function of sea temperature and WISHE is nothing more than WISHE-ful thinking.
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Old 10-06-2017, 06:17 PM
 
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Multiple factors in tropical system RI, but warm water can indeed be an ingredient. There are always multiple factors though that play a role and many we don't fully understand yet. Intensity prediction is still harder then forecast track prediction. One of the new tools to help built into last years launched GOES16 satellite is a lightning mapper that can help detect changes in strength before it occurs.
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Old 10-06-2017, 07:14 PM
 
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Some of the possible peak surge maps: (Available here and change about 1 to 1.5 hours after the 5 and 11 am/pm EST updates): TROPICAL STORM NATE



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