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Old 10-14-2017, 01:47 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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U.S Weather Prediction Center has a conference call with UK Met Office. That sounds rare.


https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/919186027465515009
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Old 10-14-2017, 04:29 PM
 
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Misleading headline...a cat 3 isn't headed to Ireland, but winds up to around hurricane force likely. So I like that purple wind map from AccuWeather posted on the previous page better.

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/s...83674046181376
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Old 10-14-2017, 04:32 PM
 
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Debbie in 1961, also reached Cat3(albeit further west), took a similar path affecting Ireland & northern UK.

Atlantic - Ophelia forms October 9, 2017-img_2766.png
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Old 10-14-2017, 05:36 PM
 
Location: Deep 13
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Batten down your leprechauns!
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Old 10-14-2017, 09:49 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: NYC
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NOAA's plotting cuts off at 60°N and 1°W

https://twitter.com/erikcorry/status/919330620320419842
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Old 10-15-2017, 04:26 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Debbie in 1961, also reached Cat3(albeit further west), took a similar path affecting Ireland & northern UK.
Hurricane Katia (more specifically her remnants) severely affected the UK in 2011. In London, they still talk about The Great Storm of 1987. They have long memories over there because they still talk about the Great Storm of 1703 too. Interestingly, Ophelia will hit Ireland and the UK exactly 30 years after the Storm of 1987.
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Old 10-15-2017, 04:47 AM
 
Location: Paris
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SST map has a large temperature anomaly over the NE Atlantic. Not nearly warm enough to remain as a warm core, symmetric hurricane but can't harm the thing.





Abnormally "warm" at 500 hPa for an European storm when it makes landfall:





The eye is disappearing.



Any good webcams you know of in Ireland?
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Old 10-15-2017, 10:38 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: NYC
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some of its strength appears to be more than you'd expect for the sea surface temperatures, even though they're warmer than normal, they're barely the minimum for a hurricane let alone a hurricane. Cause seems to be to be cooler upper atmosphere temperatures causing more convection, plus low wind shear and an outflow (lets more convection keep going?)

A 2015 study led by Ron McTaggart-Cowan (Environment Canada) showed that a better threshold for systems like Ophelia that are transitioning away from the tropics would be based on potential instability between lower and upper levels of the hurricane, rather than on SSTs alone. Ophelia meets this threshold, according to Philippe Papin (University at Albany, SUNY).

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/op...ds-tap-ireland

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/919231886744080385
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Old 10-15-2017, 04:37 PM
 
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5pEST/AST(10pIreland/UK): Storm looks completely different on satellite compated to just 24-36 hours ago. Winds down to 85mph (140km/h), moving NNE at 38mph(61km/h), pressure 971mb. As expected winds expanding outward with hurricane force winds now extend up to 60 miles(95km) from storm center, Tropical Storm force up to 255miles(405km).

NHC says "Ophelia's cloud structure is declining rapidly" with microwave/IR imagery shows low and mid level circulation structures separating (tropical hurricanes like nice neatly stacked layers ocean surface to cloud tops).

Atlantic - Ophelia forms October 9, 2017-img_2779.png

Per US National Hurricane Center:
"HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon. Strong winds will then spread inland across the Ireland and parts of the UK into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be nearing completion.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves."

Friday:
Atlantic - Ophelia forms October 9, 2017-img_2725.png

Sunday:
Atlantic - Ophelia forms October 9, 2017-img_2780.gif
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Old 10-15-2017, 06:22 PM
 
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https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/919719079107268609
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