South Pacific Typhoon - Lan (Paolo) Formation alert Oct 14, 2017 (snow, warm, temperatures)
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Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,797,495 times
Reputation: 1932
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Something I need to be personally concerned about. These past two days I have checked mooring lines and added holding capacity.
Lan (Paolo in the Philippines)
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 140.0E TO 11.0N 134.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 139.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. A 132112Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150230Z.//
Actually riding out winds from a different typhoon that is effecting my area tonight. However, that one is not of concern.
I usually refer to Philippines to Japan region as West Pacific (WPAC).
Went from quiet to suddenly busy there!!
And Lan may help give the central and eastern US a good quick shot of cold air end of next week or at least play a roll in offsetting the cold air so it can escape south breifly...first season eastern US Appalachian mountain peak snow dusting/flurries perhaps?
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,797,495 times
Reputation: 1932
In fact got more busy today.
Directly over me!
My vessel has turned two 180 degree turns in past two hours. Winds dropped to near zero after the first change.
There is a typhoon forming directly over Palawan.
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N 118.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 115.8E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND BROAD CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). OBSERVATIONS FROM PUERTO PRINCESA SHOW A THREE MILLIBAR PRESSURE DROP OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. A 180142Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ON THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDS INTO THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND GETS ABSORBED INTO NEARBY TY 25W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Lan also appears to have snuffed out the LLCC that was forming near Palawan. That peaked as a tropical depression and the warning of a cyclone has been cancelled.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,277 posts, read 2,797,495 times
Reputation: 1932
I double checked and JTWC already labels Lan a Super Typhoon.
That invites some comparisons with Maria at its peak.
Maria at it's peak was:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
Maria wins on sustained and peak wind gusts.
However,
Lan has an eye 5 times as wide.
64 KT winds in Lan represent a circle 85nm across and Maria was 40 nm across.
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