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Old 10-14-2017, 06:18 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,279 posts, read 2,225,737 times
Reputation: 1920

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Something I need to be personally concerned about. These past two days I have checked mooring lines and added holding capacity.

Lan (Paolo in the Philippines)

JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 140.0E TO 11.0N 134.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 139.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. A 132112Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150230Z.//

Actually riding out winds from a different typhoon that is effecting my area tonight. However, that one is not of concern.

Lan on the other hand has the makings of a major.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:10 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Headed to Japan
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Old 10-15-2017, 01:30 PM
 
Location: João Pessoa,Brazil(The easternmost point of Americas)
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Sorry but you should know that South Pacific means the Pacific Ocean below the Equator Line.
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Old 10-15-2017, 10:36 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghost-likin View Post
Sorry but you should know that South Pacific means the Pacific Ocean below the Equator Line.
I used to think that too. And you will find both what I about to claim and what you said on the Internet


South Pacific is more of a region grouped by Island and Country types.

Hence Micronesia and Polynesia are both part of the overall South Pacific

Almost all of Tales of the South Pacific take place North of the equator.
.
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Old 10-17-2017, 04:40 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Peak is forecasted in 72 hours

72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.8N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS

This typhoon travels North, it will mostly effect Japan.

Japan is not part of Micronesia so it is not in "South Pacific".
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Old 10-17-2017, 07:30 PM
 
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I usually refer to Philippines to Japan region as West Pacific (WPAC).

Went from quiet to suddenly busy there!!
South Pacific Typhoon - Lan (Paolo) Formation alert Oct 14, 2017-img_2808.jpg

South Pacific Typhoon - Lan (Paolo) Formation alert Oct 14, 2017-img_2807.jpg


And Lan may help give the central and eastern US a good quick shot of cold air end of next week or at least play a roll in offsetting the cold air so it can escape south breifly...first season eastern US Appalachian mountain peak snow dusting/flurries perhaps?

https://twitter.com/aliciambentley/s...57506423689216
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Old 10-18-2017, 05:48 AM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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In fact got more busy today.

Directly over me!

My vessel has turned two 180 degree turns in past two hours. Winds dropped to near zero after the first change.

There is a typhoon forming directly over Palawan.


REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N 118.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 115.8E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND BROAD CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). OBSERVATIONS FROM PUERTO PRINCESA SHOW A THREE MILLIBAR PRESSURE DROP OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. A 180142Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ON THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDS INTO THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND GETS ABSORBED INTO NEARBY TY 25W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Old 10-19-2017, 04:32 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,279 posts, read 2,225,737 times
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Lan is no longer expected to peak as high. However, from satellite view there is a lot of rain.

36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.1N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 420 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS

Lan also appears to have snuffed out the LLCC that was forming near Palawan. That peaked as a tropical depression and the warning of a cyclone has been cancelled.
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Old 10-20-2017, 02:21 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Wow big change in last few hours. New peak forecast


--- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.9N 131.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 315 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 365 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14


This is looking like a direct hit on Tokyo.
However, see the graphic and notice winds will be way down. Still flooding possible.

The current eye is over 50 miles across and this typhoon will likely earn the rank of "super typhoon".

Last edited by pbmaise; 10-20-2017 at 02:40 PM..
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Old 10-20-2017, 04:28 PM
 
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
5,279 posts, read 2,225,737 times
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I double checked and JTWC already labels Lan a Super Typhoon.

That invites some comparisons with Maria at its peak.

Maria at it's peak was:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

Maria wins on sustained and peak wind gusts.

However,
Lan has an eye 5 times as wide.

64 KT winds in Lan represent a circle 85nm across and Maria was 40 nm across.
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