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Old 10-28-2017, 02:45 PM
 
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5pEST Saturday 28Oct2017: "93L" became "PTC18", then a Tropical Depression, and now officially Tropical Storm Philippe. Winds 40mph, moving VERY quickly now North at 29mph, pressure 1002mb.

Official information from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issued at 2/5/8/11am/pmEST here: National Hurricane Center



Current main tornado threat area:
Atlantic - Philippe forms October 28, 2017-img_3060.gif
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Old 10-28-2017, 02:51 PM
 
Location: S. FL (hell for me-wife loves it)
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Thanks for the thread Psych. I'm sitting in this squeaking thing...can't wait for hurricane season to come to an end. Very weary this year.
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Old 10-28-2017, 03:02 PM
 
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And here's the 5pm cone map, interesting track because some models bring it into New Jersey or NY region as a strong low/hybrid storm while others keep it out to sea and another Low as part of the cold front effects New England and this later scenario is the one NHC states they're going with. But whatever happens, happens super quick!

Atlantic - Philippe forms October 28, 2017-img_3061.png
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Old 10-28-2017, 03:04 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TerraDown View Post
Thanks for the thread Psych. I'm sitting in this squeaking thing...can't wait for hurricane season to come to an end. Very weary this year.
Good news for FL is that by Sunday afternoon this thing is GONE from there!
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Old 10-28-2017, 03:21 PM
 
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The 5pm NHC discussion page mentions the two Low centers in Philippe...the main one over Cuba and another "non-tropical surface low" 100 miles West of Key West that says has "developed beneath an upper-level jet
entrance region ahead of an approaching cold front". So basically one wins out or they merge near S FL then the storm moves out into the Atlantic. More then one "center" of Low pressure or if not vertically stacked from ocean floor to cloud top is unhealthy for Tropical Systems.
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Old 10-28-2017, 06:04 PM
 
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8pEST Oct28: Winds 40mph, moving N 28mph, pressure 1002mb. 8pm cone map looks like center starts to leave FL around 2am or so overnight as this system quickly accelerates more NE.

Atlantic - Philippe forms October 28, 2017-img_3062.png
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Old 10-28-2017, 09:26 PM
 
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Philippe is a hot mess tonight, even the NHC says "Philippe has a very non-classical structure for a tropical cyclone this evening. A combination of satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observations show that the circulation center is elongated northwest-southeast from southwest of Naples, Florida, to central Cuba with at least three vorticity centers present in this area."

So this is one of those storms where it maybe fit the classification/organization to be named for a very short window but otherwise this has just been a blob of scattered showers with some breezes and occasional tornadoes in SE FL.

Atlantic - Philippe forms October 28, 2017-img_3063.gif
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Old 10-29-2017, 07:27 AM
 
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8amEST Sunday Oct29: Winds 50mph, moving NE 32mph, pressure 997mb. Has cleared Florida (preliminary rain totals received below). Philippe should transition to a post tropical low and not be updated by NHC soon.

Bottom line: Remains of Philippe help enhance another Low Pressure resulting in wide spread region of breezy conditions, scattered heavy rains across portions of the NorthEast (both resulting in scattered power outages, scattered downed trees, possible flash flooding, and rough surf. Super fast moving. By late Monday things start to clear.

As we come upon the 5th anniversary of Sandy which impacted the the NorthEast, it should be noted that Philippe will NOT be Sandy 2.0. This will be more like a Nor-Easter that's moving Super fast with farther reaching effects. Unlike Sandy, Philippe doesn't even look like a storm this morning and was a different setup then we have today. Philippe should transition to a non-tropical Low riding up the cold front, and enhance the rain and wind of the other Low associated with the cold front thats impacting the NorthEast. Philippe's remains themselves may come in towards Maine or so but it's engery will help feed the other Low higher rain/winds chances.

I glanced at the Weather Channel for just a minute and their reporter in NYC said they were getting ready for those high winds tonight...but here's the Euro for NYC winds Gust...it shows the large range of possible winds for NYC showing high uncertainty in what the winds will actually be there:

Wind Gust:
Atlantic - Philippe forms October 28, 2017-img_3066.jpg

Cone map (stops Monday 2am because not expected to be a tropical system anymore):
Atlantic - Philippe forms October 28, 2017-img_3064.png

Preliminary rain totals Florida received:
Atlantic - Philippe forms October 28, 2017-img_3065.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 10-29-2017 at 07:46 AM..
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Old 10-29-2017, 08:01 AM
 
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Image helps shows there's a lot to this setup:
Atlantic - Philippe forms October 28, 2017-img_3067.png
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Old 10-29-2017, 12:16 PM
 
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From NWS Boston office:
Atlantic - Philippe forms October 28, 2017-img_3072.jpg

And surge graph for New Haven, CT:
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/s...94463842344962

And NWS Boston office going with just minor coastal flooding:
https://twitter.com/nwsboston/status/924676138508615680
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