Here is one of the latest long term computer models ten days from now.
Three hurricanes close to Florida.
Long term computer models are not to be taken literally. Especially the locations of a hurricane that doesnt even exist yet.
That being said the macro models are showing steering currents today similar to Aug 2004.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1004 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008
VALID 12Z THU AUG 14 2008 - 12Z SUN AUG 17 2008
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PAINT A QUITE SIMILAR AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE
PATTERN ALOFT OVER NOAM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT STILL OFFER
SOME CONTINUITY DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE WEATHER
FEATURES. IN THIS PATTERN...
A SUMMERTIME WRN NOAM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING NE PAC TROUGH. A DEEP CYCLONE DIGS
SHARPLY FROM SW-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE US TO THE LEE OF THE
RIDGE...LEADING TO A RETROGRESSION OF AN EARLY WEEK ERN NOAM
TROUGH BACK TO THE E-CENTRAL US. THE COOLING SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
ACT TO FOCUS A LINGERING PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE FEEDS/POOLS DOWNSTREAM. THE EXTENT
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DIGGING DIFFERS BETWEEN
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BUT THERE IS A CLEAR RECENT TREND TO FAVOR AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. EVEN ACTING CONSERVATIVELY FOR
AUGUST...AN AMPLITUDE THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL
RANGE OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS WOULD STILL PRODUCE
QUITE A POTENT TROUGH WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS UPWARDS OF 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE EARLY TO MID AUGUST 2004 PATTERN