2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread) (november, direction, outside, moist)

[Soccernerd]

I don’t understand the models. Isn’t there a high that’s locked in over the SE? Wouldn’t it track more to the west to Texas and then up around the high into the Midwest?

[Psychoma]

Originally Posted by Soccernerd

I don’t understand the models. Isn’t there a high that’s locked in over the SE? Wouldn’t it track more to the west to Texas and then up around the high into the Midwest?

If it was north of the system then likely yes, but the high appears to be moving off into the Atlantic more Eastward as well as a strong cold front/trough coming over the Rockies Eastward which should allow the system to shoot up more northward, then depending on timing of Tropical system meeting cold front helps determine when it'll turn more towards the US east coast or Appalachians region.



Models are in more agreement of a stronger system approaching the US Gulf coast this week, models seem more split on timing though.

NHC has now upgraded TD14 to Tropical Storm Michael.

[Psychoma]

7Oct18 11aPDT/2pEDT Tropical Update:
Atlantic:
-See Leslie thread.
-See Michael thread.
-Invest 92L off the NW coast of Africa has a 30% chance of development as it heads towards N Africa (Morocco) and SW Europe (Spain, Portugal) region:


East Atlantic:
-See Sergio thread.
-Invest 97E is no more.

Central Pacific:
-All quiet.

[Psychoma]

7Oct18 8pEDT Tropical Update:
-Atlantic: Another area emerging off W Africa has a low 20-30% chance of development next 5-days:

[Psychoma]

9Oct18 - 6aEDT/AST - Tropical Depression 15 (TD15) has formed in the far Eastern Atlantic off W Africa.

[Psychoma]

9Oct18 11aEDT/AST - Tropical Depression 15 has become Tropical Storm Nadine in the far Eastern Atlantic.

[Psychoma]

9Oct18 2pEDT - Another system brewing in the W Caribbean with a low 0-20% chance of development currently, but for now this one may head generally towards Central America:

[Psychoma]

12Oct18 - 8pEDT:
Atlantic:
-See Leslie thread.
-Maybe watch towards Central America next two weeks, but really nothing promising showing up overall depending what model you look at.


East Pacific:
-An area just S of Mexico has a low 10% chance of development next 5 days.
-Models seem to say occasional storms to come up parallel to Mexico's West coast may continue.

Central Pacific:
-All quiet.

[Psychoma]

14Oct18 5pPDT/8pEDT
Atlantic:
-Invest 94L has formed in the SW Caribbean, moving generally WNW towards Central America and currently has a low 20% chance of development into something more. Regardless, heavy rains with likely flooding/mudslide concerns into the region.

-An area of disorganized showers that's been moving across the Atlantic generally Westward about 15mph is being watched for signs of development but currently is rated at low 0% chance of development next 5 days.



East Pacific:
-Tropical Depression 22E has formed along the W coast of Mexico. Estimated winds 35mph(55km/h), moving WNW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 1006mb. Expected to be our next named storm very shortly. Depending on its proximity to land, it could become a hurricane this week as well. Slow movement means that heavy rains could affect areas of the coast nearby though as well. Too early to know if winds will be an issue along the coast or not yet either. To me this cone map implies slow moving system and uncertainty in track:




-An area of disorganized showers is expected to form off the S coat of Mexico in a few days and has a 60% chance of development in 5-days.






Central Pacific:
-No activity

[Psychoma]

17Oct18 AM update:
Reminder Atlantic hurricane season runs until Nov30th although activity is starting to wind down. The latest known Cat3 or higher to hit the US mainland since 1851 is the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, Oct. 25th. I'll have to look when the last hurricane Cat1 or higher landfall was.

Atlantic:
-Invest 94L headed into Central America as expected and did not develop.
-There are currently no areas of activity to monitor.
-Some models hint at some mischief in the N Gulf of Mexico and/or central Caribbean towards middle to end of next week but nothing solid showing just yet and over a week out.


East Pacific:
-Tropical Depression 22E (TD22E) became Tropical Storm Tara which dissipated Tuesday night along the SW Mexico coast. Will start a post this evening for record on the board here tonight if time allows.
-An area of showers just S of Guatemala and S Mexico is expected to develop in the coming days with a high 90% chance of development. Models show it may generally follow Tara's path, generally parallel to the W Mexico coast and likely a hurricane as it heads in general direction (but not guaranteed to affect this far out in time yet) the area of Puerto Vallarta / Manzanillo Mexico.
-Another area well off the SW Mexico coast has a low 20% chance of development.




Central Pacific:
-No activity.