U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-13-2018, 01:54 PM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
Reputation: 1572

Advertisements

And as of Sunday afternoon 13May here's this weeks potential Gulf storm: 30-40% chance of development, may or may not end up being classified as 'tropical' but we'll see. Reguardless, increased scattered shower chances across the Southeast US this week. And no major development/surprises expected from it.

For some reason NHC's image won't upload for me this moment but their update and info is found here:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Possible 7-day rainfall (I imagine this is scattered amounts up to that high, but several inches possible some locations):
2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-img_8777.gif
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-13-2018, 04:14 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
Reputation: 12723
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
And as of Sunday afternoon 13May here's this weeks potential Gulf storm: 30-40% chance of development,
Gonna get wet down there.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/sta...51273872928768
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2018, 04:16 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
Reputation: 12723
Was the GFS that far off? Well, ok, maybe on how strong, but it had the right idea. Euro model now showing a storm devloping as well.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/995734843748225026
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2018, 06:41 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
Reputation: 12723
Very cool graph! Click tweet to see others within conversation. Good stuff

For those not sure what this means... we obviously know warmer waters helps but its also important shear is low so it allows the cyclone to spin and develop and strengthen.

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/st...46963002478593
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-15-2018, 06:44 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
Reputation: 1572
15May18 AM Summary:
-Tropical Depression One-E fizzled out Friday 11May18 in East Pacific.
-East Pacific Hurricane season starts today! (Atlantic June 1)
-System in East Gulf 10% chance of development, but a scattered heavy rain maker reguardless across the SE US.
-GFS still picking up a storm towards start of Memorial Day weekend generated from a Central American Gyre, which is hard to actually predict formation from but possible.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-16-2018, 06:58 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
12,713 posts, read 4,035,473 times
Reputation: 9376
Kansas City meteorologist Gary Lezak has his 2018 hurricane forecast out:

Hurricane Season Will Be Active With Multiple United States Landfalls
Quote:
Weather2020 has completed a 17-year analysis of hurricane seasons and this provides the confidence to make accurate weather forecasts for the prediction of tropical storms and hurricanes. This is going to be a very active year around the United States and we already know the likely tracks of many potential tropical storms of which a few will strengthen into hurricanes. There is a hot spot as I will show below. ... In January, I spoke at the AMS conference in Austin, TX showing the likely track of one of the signature tropical systems that is likely going to form in each LRC cycle, but the strongest will be likely in late August or early September. There are many others that we have identified as well, and we are forecasting at least seven named storms to affect the United States with four hurricanes and potentially two major hurricanes making landfall most likely in this hot spot....
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-17-2018, 04:47 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
Reputation: 1572
Euro & GFS both picking up possible Tropical Storm trying to develop near the Florida peninsula coming from the South for Memorial Day weekend. Still too early to know if will exist or not or impacts but the consistency from both raises an eyebrow.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-17-2018, 05:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
Reputation: 12723
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Euro & GFS both picking up possible Tropical Storm trying to develop near the Florida peninsula coming from the South for Memorial Day weekend. Still too early to know if will exist or not or impacts but the consistency from both raises an eyebrow.
Canadian model as well now (middle)


Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-18-2018, 05:03 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
Reputation: 12723
Model update on the Tropical system next weekend...


Out of the Long range main models only the German model doesn't have anything..


These results will change a lot, lets keep track of them. Looks like the timing(as usual) will be the key, there's a cold front coming across that might kick it out or it will just get absorbed in it. (Great more moisture coming for the East)




GFS hits Florida and then it gets absorbed by the cold front coming across the U.S that time period.





Canadian forms much west of the GFS, does a little loop in the gulf, and hits the Florida panhandle and gets absorbed by the cold front coming across the U.S





Euro hits Florida as a weak storm and wants to ride up the east coast.


Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-18-2018, 08:09 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,477,410 times
Reputation: 12723
https://twitter.com/weatherbell/stat...78197972348929
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top