2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread) (average, temp, most, normal)
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And as of Sunday afternoon 13May here's this weeks potential Gulf storm: 30-40% chance of development, may or may not end up being classified as 'tropical' but we'll see. Reguardless, increased scattered shower chances across the Southeast US this week. And no major development/surprises expected from it.
For some reason NHC's image won't upload for me this moment but their update and info is found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Possible 7-day rainfall (I imagine this is scattered amounts up to that high, but several inches possible some locations):
Very cool graph! Click tweet to see others within conversation. Good stuff
For those not sure what this means... we obviously know warmer waters helps but its also important shear is low so it allows the cyclone to spin and develop and strengthen.
15May18 AM Summary:
-Tropical Depression One-E fizzled out Friday 11May18 in East Pacific.
-East Pacific Hurricane season starts today! (Atlantic June 1)
-System in East Gulf 10% chance of development, but a scattered heavy rain maker reguardless across the SE US.
-GFS still picking up a storm towards start of Memorial Day weekend generated from a Central American Gyre, which is hard to actually predict formation from but possible.
Weather2020 has completed a 17-year analysis of hurricane seasons and this provides the confidence to make accurate weather forecasts for the prediction of tropical storms and hurricanes. This is going to be a very active year around the United States and we already know the likely tracks of many potential tropical storms of which a few will strengthen into hurricanes. There is a hot spot as I will show below. ... In January, I spoke at the AMS conference in Austin, TX showing the likely track of one of the signature tropical systems that is likely going to form in each LRC cycle, but the strongest will be likely in late August or early September. There are many others that we have identified as well, and we are forecasting at least seven named storms to affect the United States with four hurricanes and potentially two major hurricanes making landfall most likely in this hot spot....
Euro & GFS both picking up possible Tropical Storm trying to develop near the Florida peninsula coming from the South for Memorial Day weekend. Still too early to know if will exist or not or impacts but the consistency from both raises an eyebrow.
Euro & GFS both picking up possible Tropical Storm trying to develop near the Florida peninsula coming from the South for Memorial Day weekend. Still too early to know if will exist or not or impacts but the consistency from both raises an eyebrow.
Model update on the Tropical system next weekend...
Out of the Long range main models only the German model doesn't have anything..
These results will change a lot, lets keep track of them. Looks like the timing(as usual) will be the key, there's a cold front coming across that might kick it out or it will just get absorbed in it. (Great more moisture coming for the East)
GFS hits Florida and then it gets absorbed by the cold front coming across the U.S that time period.
Canadian forms much west of the GFS, does a little loop in the gulf, and hits the Florida panhandle and gets absorbed by the cold front coming across the U.S
Euro hits Florida as a weak storm and wants to ride up the east coast.
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