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Old 05-18-2018, 11:52 AM
 
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Water temps suggest anything right along the West coast of Florida would struggle to develop or at least not much, a nudge more closer to central Gulf of Mexico (say South of Alabama and westward) would easily support an organized named storm, & East coast of FL could support a Tropical Storm or so if one were to move up at the correct angle to take advantage of the current Gulf Stream heat current.

Bottom line if something does form near FL would appear water temps would keep it as maybe chance of a Tropical Storm but not much more then that this early in the season (again only looking at water temp variable). Just my 2 cents tho.

2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-img_8878.png
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Old 05-21-2018, 05:55 AM
 
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Ok, it's that time again...GFS going for possible disorganized blob up near Florida region, Euro going for more developed Tropical Storm more towards Louisiana/Texas region. Either way looks like maybe a Tropical Storm at most for now.

***Regardless of what this becomes, if it exist (consistency in models says good chance something will at least try, but models have a hard time sometimes with storms that don't exist yet), expect HEAVY scattered rains wherever this ends up going, possibly stalling/meandering into next week. Flooding will possibly/likely be a concern with this and should be the main focus***

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2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-img_8931.png
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Old 05-21-2018, 06:47 AM
 
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21May18 830aEDT - NHC officially putting 20% chance on it.

2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-img_8937.jpg
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Old 05-21-2018, 01:17 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/stat...85956180602880
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Old 05-21-2018, 06:20 PM
 
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21May18 730pEDT: NHC (US gov National Hurricane Center) 40% chance of development next 5 days for potential Gulf storm. Again, the main threat / focus should be on the rain/flood concerns across the Southern US as we start next week.
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Old 05-22-2018, 05:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Tropical system forming in the gulf in May isnt too common. But I think if this weeks forms it would be south more. Wonder how they determine the exact formation spot. When its named or when it has a circulation?

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/st...75355929489413
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Old 05-22-2018, 07:05 PM
 
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That's a lot of scattered rain potential next 7 days...(amounts/locations subject to change).

2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-img_9011.png
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Old 05-23-2018, 08:22 PM
 
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Really good read/images this evening from Weather.US on our potential storm:
https://blog.weather.us/tropical-dis...-this-weekend/

And NHC at 70% chance of Tropical or SubTropical development next 5 days, again main focus is the heavy scattered rain & flood potential across the southeast, with parts of GA & AL seeing flooding some areas already this morning, NC mountains had some flooding and mudslides the other day as well.
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Old 05-24-2018, 09:27 AM
 
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24May18 - US National Hurricane Center releases 2018 seasonal outlook (next scheduled revision to numbers is August, if needed):

Atlantic:
10-16 named storms (Typical season is 12)
5-9 Hurricanes (Typ 6)
1-4 Major Hurricanes (Cat3 or higher) (Typ 3)

East Pacific:
14-20 named storms
7-12 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes

Central Pacific:
3-6 named storms

Forecasters predict a near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Old 05-24-2018, 02:51 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Everytime theres been a May named storm, the season finished with average amounts.

So figure 10-14 total? He uses ACE index, Id like to see how many became Cat 1s those 14 yrs. I'll check later on

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...45295159246849
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